BMJ study explores potential for ‘COVID-19 eradication’

the BMJ Global Health Study examines how ‘COVID-19 eradication’ might work – if high vaccination occurs in every country and all vaccines stay up to date

Today, countries around the world are obsessed with vaccination. Some are close to collective immunity, like the United Kingdom, and others are barely 4% double vaccinated – simply seek to secure the supply of vaccines despite a pre-ordered market and rising prices.

This new study is led by Nick Wilson, with Osman D Mansoor, Matthew J Boyd, Amanda kvalsvig, and Michael G Baker of the University of Otago Wellington in New Zealand.

Vaccine makers are undertaking clinical trials for improved versions that can handle the Delta variant, while others are conducting trials to see how their drug affects children. But so far the global community has looked into accepting COVID-19 as a containable virus – not destroyed.

In this research, the authors reiterate one thing: the ultimate goal of public health is to eradicate a disease or virus from populations.

So, would it be possible to eradicate COVID-19?

Perhaps.

Based on their score, the team believe COVID can be eradicated more easily than polio. Polio remains a communicable disease, with vaccines available – but there has never been a consistent global push to destroy it in the way that countries mobilized against COVID.

The data highlights that some countries have already destroyed COVID, using a mix of well-known and new public health measures. This includes border control, physical distancing, mask wearing, testing and contact tracing supported by genome sequencing – before vaccination becomes possible.

The authors commented: “Successful jurisdictions have included those with large land borders like China, high population densities like Hong Kong, but also island countries like Iceland and New Zealand, although with occasional epidemics due to border control failures that have been subjected to control. “

What are the obstacles to the total eradication of COVID?

1. Poor acceptance of vaccines?

Yes.

The vaccine is treated with suspicion by a segment of the population in every country, fueled by widely available and technical misinformation about side effects. Resources created by the government may further isolate people who are suspicious of the vaccine and think eradicating COVID is an excuse for surveillance.

2. The price of vaccination?

Yes.

There are “high up-front costs” when it comes to vaccinating a population, buying or manufacturing doses, but also creating health infrastructure. This would also include richer countries helping countries in the South, with IP exemptions and vaccine donations, but the authors cite “vaccine nationalism” as an ongoing problem.

3. Can the virus survive in animals?

No.

The authors say the virus can survive in non-human animal reservoirs, but infections of wild animals with COVID are thankfully relatively rare. When animals are infected, such as in cats or dogs, they do not seem able to re-infect humans.

4. Are new changes going to keep happening?

Yes and no.

Variants are dangerous in that they become transmissible, so the power of the Delta variant should not be ignored. Lives continue to be lost due to the variants, which is not to be dismissed. However, the authors commented: “Nonetheless, there are of course limits to viral evolution, so we can expect the virus to eventually reach its peak capacity and new vaccines to be formulated.”

The study suggests that more specific research is needed, by organizations like the World Health Organization. However, it paints a hopeful picture of what can happen when the world becomes aligned against a disease and spends significant resources to deal with the problem.