Increased transmission of COVID-19; future hospital admissions and uncertain occupation

Media contact: Communication from the Ministry of Health
Public inquiries: State COVID-19 Hotline, 1-800-525-0127

“Current influx of patients is overwhelming our hospitals,” says top epidemiologist in state

OLYMPIA – The last COVID-19 Modeling and Monitoring Situation Report from the Washington State Department of Health (DOH) shows that the majority of counties now have case rates above 500 per 100,000. Washington is expected to see high levels of cases and hospital admissions, with an increase in deaths.

The findings of the report include:

• The prevalence of COVID-19 reaches a new high. The current best estimate for prevalence is 0.94%, or about 1 in 106 Washingtonians. The previous reported record was 0.64% in August 2021, or about 1 in 156 Washingtonians. About 39% of the population remains susceptible to COVID-19 infection.
• Transmission continues to increase, but at a slower rate. On September 2, the best estimate of the effective reproduction number (Re, which tells us how many new people each case of COVID-19 will infect) was 1.14. On August 6, this estimate was 1.49. A breeding number greater than one means that the cases will continue to increase. To see cases decrease, the number of spawners must remain well below 1.0 for a substantial period of time.
• Deaths from COVID-19 are on the rise. The seven-day moving average of deaths increased rapidly from 5 to 10 deaths per day in July to 27 per day in late August.
• Hospital admissions and occupancy rates for COVID-19 are still very high. After peaking at 190 daily admissions (seven-day moving average) at the end of August, the current average has declined only slightly to 186. Admissions and occupancy remain at very high levels. While some recent declines are apparent as of September 18, current occupancy levels still far exceed those seen at previous winter 2020 highs.

• Hospital projections indicate that high admissions and occupancy levels for COVID-19 are expected to persist through the fall. The projections pose two scenarios based on increasing transmission rates, one with a lower or “modest” rate and the other with a higher or “moderate” rate. In these scenarios, hospital admissions by the end of December could decrease, or they could increase to between 141 and 240 admissions per day. The number of beds occupied until December could decrease or increase to reach between 1,100 and 2,000 beds per day.

“What this tells us is that our individual choices and behaviors today will determine whether or not our friends and families will have full access to health care in the near future, for any medical need, not just COVID. said Scott Lindquist, MD, MPH, state epidemiologist for communicable diseases. “The current influx of patients is overwhelming our hospitals. With school in session and flu season almost here, our best option to ride the wave is to wear our masks and get the shot. “

Washington’s immunity rate would be sufficient to control hospital admissions and occupancy given a smaller or “modest” increase in transmission. In the case of higher or “moderate” transmission, however, the rate of immunity would not be sufficient, and hospital admissions and occupancy would increase, particularly among the estimated 39% of the population susceptible to infection. Vaccines are still very effective in protecting against hospitalization. The best way to increase immunity and slow transmission is to to get vaccinated and wear face coverings in indoor or crowded public places.

More COVID-19 data can be found on the DOH Data Dashboard.

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