The question is not when Trump will start campaigning. This is if he stops.

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(NBC) – With each passing day, former President Donald Trump seems to be running again to regain the Oval Office in 2024.

The real question is not when he will start campaigning, but whether he will stop.

Trump has held rallies in major states, including an October rally in Iowa, home of the first presidential nomination contest, where he told voters “We’re going back to America.”

He endorses candidates for federal and statewide office-sometimes in primaries-and claims credit when they succeed, as he did last week after Virginia Gov.-elect Glenn Youngkin and the newly elected Rep. Mike Carey, R-Ohio.

Trump continues to flood inboxes with almost daily fundraising appeals for his political action committee, “Save America,” which sat on $ 90 million – a real fortune in national politics – last made this disclosure to the Federal Election Commission in June. And he remains in an effort to discredit GOP officials who could have thwarted a third bid for the presidency, calling them “Republicans in name only” and worse.

“It is unfortunate that the RINOs in the House and Senate gave Biden and the Democrats victory over the‘ Non-Infrastructure ’Bill,” Trump said in a statement after the House sent a $ 1.2 trillion infrastructure proposal to President Joe Biden’s desk last Friday. “All Republicans who voted for the longevity of the Democrat should be ashamed of themselves.”

There is no doubt that the former president maintains his grip on the Republican electoral base, and, with it, the ability to influence the majority of the party’s candidates and elected officials. What remains in some doubt is what, exactly, Trump wants to do with that power. But he sends a strong signal that he plans to run.

“I’m definitely thinking about it and we’ll see,” Trump told Fox News in an interview published Monday. “I think a lot of people will be very happy, honestly, with the decision, and will probably announce that after midterms.”

Republican strategists see a potential candidate keeping himself in the political arena in ways that will benefit him whether he chooses to run or not.

“I would describe what Trump is doing now as not running for president,” said Chris Wilson, a longtime Republican strategist and pollster who worked on the Texas Sen.’s presidential campaign. Ted Cruz in 2016. “Everything he does could easily be a campaign in 2024, but it also keeps him in the public eye and has a strong base of political power if he decides to play kingmaker in the primary and do something else.”

In fact, he is doing all the steps of a presidential candidate – and has more capacity to command national attention than any other potential GOP 2024 hopes for. Next to Trump, the rest of the field looks very small: former Vice President Mike Pence, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Sens. Cruz, Josh Hawley, R-Mo., Tom Cotton, R-Ark., And others.

His universal name recognition, deep support within the GOP and ability to raise money means Trump can afford to wait for a formal decision, according to John J. Pitney, a political science professor at Claremont McKenna College outside of Los Angeles.

“If he wants the GOP nomination, it’s up to him for questioning,” Pitney said. “Trump is in a strange position,” allowing him to “content himself with making money, fighting legally and getting the occasional fix of public applause” right now.

In late May, longtime Trump adviser Jason Miller told NBC News that “there’s a good chance” Trump will run if he thinks he’s in a good position to win. Many veteran Trump advisers, including Miller, did not respond to requests for comment on this story.

Democrats are paying close attention to Trump’s positioning.

“The Trump threat should not be underestimated,” said Chris Kofinis, a Democratic strategist who has worked on numerous presidential campaigns. “How much of a threat depends on whether voters continue to feel that Democrats are speaking out despite their concerns.”

As evidence of that problem for Democrats, Kofinis pointed to Youngkin’s victory in Virginia and the thin re-election of Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy of New Jersey in a state that generally favors Democrats by a wide margin.

“You don’t have to look back to New Jersey and Virginia to realize how much we’re out there right now,” he said.

While White House officials hope Biden gains from the enactment of his infrastructure measure – and perhaps a social spending bill behind it – his approval ratings have been under water since August, according to the Real Clear Politics average of national surveys. They stood at 42.7 percent, with his disapproval at 51.3 percent.

Many Republicans view Youngkin as a tightrope-artist model. They watched him fuel Trump’s base with appeals on cultural issues while reassuring independent voters by avoiding Trump himself. However, that construction highlights the need for Trump -minded voters in the GOP. Youngkin garnered large numbers of attendees in both rural communities that helped deliver Trump’s victory in 2016 and kept him close to the electoral college in his failed 2020 re -election bid. Those voters are still enthusiastic, and many of them are waiting for Trump to return on the ballot.

If he officially runs in 2024, he won’t have to launch a campaign. It’s starting.

Copyright 2021 WMBF. All rights reserved.

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