US Hospitals Prepare for Potential Omicron Rise in January | Coronavirus

The Omicron variant accounted for nearly 3% of Covid cases in the United States on Saturday – up from just 0.4% the week before, according to The data of the CDC. The variant is expected to continue to increase rapidly, based on the experiences of other countries and could be dominant in a few weeks.

“I suspect these numbers will increase dramatically over the next two weeks,” Celine Gounder, infectious disease specialist and epidemiologist at New York University and Bellevue Hospital told reporters Wednesday. She expects an Omicron wave to peak in late January, then come back down in February.

In a meeting with state health leaders on Tuesday, the CDC present of them scenarios, based on models, on how the variant might lead to infections in the weeks and months to come. Omicron and Delta cases could peak as early as January or a smaller increase in Omicron could occur in the spring.

It’s unclear which variant, Delta or Omicron, will dominate in the coming months or if they will coexist, Gounder said. Regardless, “we predict an increase in hospitalizations, an increase in deaths and an increase in the burden on the health care system in the coming months.”

The United States was already grappling with a Delta wave that started before the Thanksgiving holiday, and officials fear that travel and gatherings during holidays like Christmas and New Years will add explosive growth to an already situation. tense.

Schools across the United States are seeing the number of cases increase, and some are closing earlier or reducing in-person activities. In New York City, Cornell University reported 903 cases among college students this week – including many cases of the Omicron variant in fully vaccinated people. The school closed early and went virtual.

In several states, hospitals are already on the verge of being overwhelmed. In Michigan, intensivists volunteer to work for free in intensive care units, a doctor reports.

“Health systems need to have a plan in place for what will likely be an increase in hospitalizations in the coming weeks,” Gounder said. “What are the staffing plans, especially during vacations when staff are going to want to take time for themselves? This may involve delaying elective procedures to reassign staff and working with agencies to bring in nurses and travel specialists as needed, she said.

Public health officials should step up testing and surveillance across the country, she said.

A portion of the funds from the American Rescue Plan can be used at the state and local levels to purchase rapid tests, as Massachusetts and Colorado have started to do. With Omicron, frequent testing may be more important than with previous variants, Gounder said.

“Omicron has an even shorter incubation period of two to three days. If you want a reasonable chance of catching most of these infections and being able to do something about it, you really need to get tested every day. “

Between 15 and 30 percent of all positive tests should be sequenced to understand which variants are spreading across the country, Gounder said. “We have dramatically increased the volume of testing, but we’re not where we need to be and it’s still a bit patchy across the country.” Wastewater monitoring can also be a “really useful tool for taking the pulse of what’s to come and how fast”.

Joe Biden’s national plan to fight Omicron specifically excludes restrictions like stay-at-home orders and the majority of states have seen their dramatically reduced health powers during the pandemic, making it more difficult to take emergency measures to slow the spread of the virus.

Continuing to increase immunizations, including initial doses and booster shots, will also be important to tackle current and current waves. This will require a concerted campaign to educate the public on why it is important, for example, to immunize newly eligible children.

Improving ventilation and air filtration is also important, as is wearing high-quality masks, Gounder said. “People know about masks. They might not know, however, that the KN-95 and KF-94 would be the preferred mask. How did you get them? How do you make sure they’re the right type? ”

It is still too early to tell if Omicron is more or less lethal than previous variants. “Virulence really depends on the age of the person we’re talking about, as well as other demographics, but age is probably the most important,” Gounder said. “With the first data coming out of South Africa, a lot of this involved young, relatively healthy, college-aged people.”

But the available evidence indicates that the variant is more transmissible and evasive to the immune system, making infection more likely in those who are vaccinated or who have recovered from previous episodes with the virus. In the New York and New Jersey health zone, for example, Omicron is present in 13% of cases.

A new study on the previous variants find that 40% of people who test positive for SARS-CoV-2 are asymptomatic. Younger people are more likely to have no symptoms, with 60% of people under the age of 20 not developing any symptoms – but they are still able to transmit the virus.

Almost two years after the start of the coronavirus epidemic, people are tired – of the virus, of staying home, of schools unexpectedly closing, and of hospitals canceling elective surgeries. But Gounder cautioned against complacency as cases rise and health systems falter.

“It’s exhausting,” she said. For “those of us who are on the front lines, whether in health care or public health, this is something that we are going to have to deal with for decades to come. It’s our new normal – literally, it’s our life. “