bigger and more dangerous than ever

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The maverick former president returns. And yes, we will need a bigger boat.

On Saturday, Jan. 15, after seemingly endless hours spent in hibernation, Donald Trump came out of some political quarters. At a rally in Florence, Arizona, wearing the unmistakable red hat, Trump took to the stage, all in the hope of “saving America”. Save the country from what, exactly? Of course those on the other side of the political aisle.

Author Charlotte Bronte warns readers that life is too short to spend “nursing hatred or registering wrongs”.

Trump, who is clearly not a fan of Bronte, still harbors a lot of anger and registers a lot of mistakes. Or perceived wrong. At a recent rally, Trump repeated false statements that the 2020 election was literally stolen from him. But what is the purpose of the rally? Although he has not yet officially thrown his MAGA hat into the proverbial ring, there appears to be little doubt that the former president will run for re-election. The rally, we were told, was a soft launch for 2024.

Trump, like all of us, has an ego. However, the 75-year-old appears to be slightly larger than the average person, and more vulnerable. Right now, his ego is bruised, and returning to the office seems to be the only cure.

Unlike the first time, Trump is back as a staunch political veteran and someone with a firm hand in the Republican Party. According to some well-known experts, Trump is not only the most powerful man in the Republican Party, he is the main owner of the Grand Old Party.

In 2015, when he first announced his intentions to run for perhaps the most important job in the world, Trump was ridiculed and belittled on an equal footing. This time, however, little is underestimated of his ability. And for a good reason.

After a year in office, current President Joe Biden finds himself struggling for support. According to the latest poll numbers from Gallup, Biden has an approval rating of only 40 percent. Meanwhile, as many as 56 percent of respondents disagree with his leadership.

The latest research by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, published Jan. 13, “found that 44 percent of Americans disagree and 39 percent agree with the overall performance of President Joe Biden’s job as President”.

His net approval rating is at minus 5 percent; that was two points less than the Redfield poll on Dec. 18.

That doesn’t mean Biden will seek a second term in office. At age 79, it is unlikely that the current president will have the courage or strength for a second term. But, considering that vice president Kamala Harris appears to be actually doing worse than Biden, Democrats have now found themselves in an unenviable position.

As analysts at Redfield said, “Vice President Kamala Harris’ net approval rating has also worsened compared to Dec. 18, dropping four points to -8 percent this week.”

“In our most recent poll, 43 per cent disagreed (up 2 per cent) and 35 per cent approved (down 2 per cent) Kamala Harris’ performance as Vice President, with an additional 19 per cent disagreeing. or disapprove (up 1 percent). ”

Trump spoke to a large gathering of people in Arizona at his first rally of the year, where he continued to push claims that the election was rigged. (AP)

Signs of impending civil war

Trump, like the highest political predator he is, feels a whole range of vulnerabilities on the left; he probably looked to exploit them. If he does, he will have a lot of support on the right.

According to the Pew Research Center, “Two-thirds of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say they want to see former President Donald Trump continue to be a major political figure for many years to come, including 44 percent who say they want him .run as president in 2024. ”

What will the United States look like under President Trump? What effect would he, who is a highly divisive character, have on a country that has never been politically divided, a country that seems no longer to govern, according to some well-known authors?

The US could be heading for another civil war. Will a second term under Trump push the country to the brink? Honestly, we don’t know.

Outside the US, what does his return to office mean for the wider world? What does this mean for US-China relations, for example? Considering Trump’s history of making controversial comments about China, as well as China’s less favorable view of Trump, there’s no need to be a political scholar to see how Washington’s relationship could have worsened- Beijing.

What about the Middle East? Will a Trump presidency help or hinder the US?

TRT World contacted William Reno, a professor and chair of political science at Weinberg College of Arts and Sciences, Illinois, for his opinion.

“The dominant role of the U.S. in the Middle East,” which was “established when Egyptian president Sadat’s decision in 1972 to throw the Soviets out of the country and the settlement of the 1973 Arab-Israeli War, is unambiguous. which is finished and cannot be returned, ”said Reno.

“Russia’s military presence in Syria and its diplomatic support for the Syrian regime must be considered.” Moreover, “commercial deals with China give governments in the region more leverage compared to the US (and everyone else).”

Then, of course, there is the question of Iran.

As Reno noted, “Iran’s development of precision-strike weapons capabilities in addition to its nuclear program has shifted the balance of power in the region.”

Much has changed since the “second half of Trump’s first term” with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards using “more accurate ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones to attack ISIS, Saudi oil facilities, an airbase of the US in Iraq, an oil tanker off the coast of Oman, and Kurdish militias in Iraq. ”

Reno continued, “If Trump 2.0 decides to put serious pressure on Iran, that country will have much greater capacity to traditionally strike in the past, and greater opportunity to target allies of US or other targets that harm US interests. “

As for Israel, it is “another country in the Middle Eastern,” he said.

Asked to expand on what exactly this means, Reno said, “in the sense that other countries in the region (UAE, Saudi Arabia) are open to working with it as a strategic partner. This somewhat reduces the prospect of Israel on U.S. security guarantees It also somewhat represents a threat to the U.S., as long as greater autonomy for Israel to pursue its own interests could drag the U.S. into disputes/conflicts that it’s not a direct US interest. “

Furthermore, “Trump’s reputation for flexible and contingent deal-making has separated many traditional U.S. allies in 1.0 term and will certainly do so in a 2.0 presidency. This means that the U.S. will have little choice but to do it alone in the pursuit of its interests in the region. “This type of behavior” has become common for many officials in the region, including those with general favorable outlook on the US as a whole, to protect their bets and leave the doors open for deals with others (Russians, Chinese, Turks, etc.). ”

The American Dream

John Chalcraft, a professor of Middle East history and politics at the London School of economics, told TRT World that “a Trump presidency would greatly increase tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia – and thus increase the danger of war and violence. most likely, to encourage right-wing Israeli governments, and strengthen Israeli apartheid. ”

Chalcraft warned that a Trump presidency would likely “encourage Israel to be more aggressive against Iran, and Saudi Arabia to be more aggressive against Yemen. In general, a Trump presidency would exacerbate both inequalities. equal to economics and dictatorship, as well as xenophobia, misogyny, and homophobia. ”

So, should Trump return to office, he will face a number of Sisyphus -like struggles, both inside and outside the country. A lot has changed since his first term. The country, thirsty from the effects of the coronavirus, appears to be staring at the barrel of a crippled economic reckoning.

On the global stage, things don’t look much better, especially after the disastrous evacuation from Afghanistan. The American dream is not dead, but it is certainly in critical condition. Can Donald Trump revive it? If Dr. Chalcraft’s words are anything to be done, the answer is a resounding no.

Source: TRT World

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