Bitcoin nears all-time low of market halving, RSI hits new low

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Bitcoin markets are cyclical and precedents have moved around halving events. If history is to repeat itself, the BTC cycle could soon bottom out.

There are a number of on-chain signals suggesting that Bitcoin is at or near its cycle low. The main one is the influence of the halving event as it has been in previous cycles.

The Bitcoin halving is automatically timed to halve the block reward every four years. The next one is scheduled for May 2024, when the block reward drops to 3,125 BTC.

Analysts have observed that in previous cycles, Bitcoin tended to drop 517-547 days before the next halving event. According to the half counter, there are only 495 days left. This means that the markets could be very close to their cycle bottom if history rhymes.

Bitcoin RSI at the lowest levels

Other technical indicators are also flashing cycle bottom signals. The Bitcoin Relative Strength Index (RSI) is the weakest it has ever been, according to the creator of the stock-flow model “PlanB”.

The RSI is a momentum indicator measuring the speed and magnitude of recent asset price changes. Additionally, it is used to assess overvalued or undervalued conditions in the markets, which are currently extremely weak.

Crypto analyst Miles Deutscher commented that a bitcoin wick up to $10,000 wouldn’t be so bad since it’s tradable:

It’s actually an extended, boring, sideways crab market where alts bleed slowly against BTC and volume dries up. This is what real pain looks like.

Markets have been sideways since the FTX crash in early November. Indicators suggest consolidation is likely to continue through 2023.

On the bright side, there is still plenty of conviction from retail investors and long-term holders. Total supply held by long-term holders is at an all-time high, according to Glassnodes senior analyst.

BTC Price Outlook

Bitcoin prices have been stable for a week, when it was trading just below $17,000. There has been virtually no movement in the past 24 hours, and the asset was changing hands for $16,829 at press time, according to CoinGecko.

Nothing to see here – BTC/USD 1 month – BeInCrypto

BTC prices haven’t returned to their Nov. 22 cycle low of around $15,700, however, but they’re not far off. As it stands, Bitcoin is currently down 75.6% from its all-time high in November 2021.

Also, previous bear cycles have seen declines of over 80%, so there could be a bit more pain ahead.

Disclaimer

BeInCrypto strives to provide accurate and up-to-date information, but it will not be responsible for missing facts or inaccurate information. You comply and understand that you must use this information at your own risk. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile financial assets, so do your research and make your own financial decisions.

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