Opinion | Kellyanne Conway: The Case for and Against Trump

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Any repeat by the Trump campaign in 2024 of the disastrous mistakes in personnel, strategy and tactics of the Trump campaign in 2020 could lead to the same result in 2020. With about $1.6 billion to spend and Joe Biden as the opponent, the 2020 election should be a blowout. Instead, they prove the adage that the fastest way to make a small fortune is to have a huge one and waste most of it.

Mr. lost support. Trump among older voters, white men, white voters with college degrees, and independents, even as he increased his share of the vote among key demographics such as Hispanics and Blacks. A wild card: Will the undercover, hidden Trump voters of 2016, those who want to keep their presidential choice private from pollsters, return in 2024?

Republicans should also invest in and be enthusiastic about early voting. This is a competition for ballots, not just votes. As ridiculous as it is to vote almost two months before Election Day and count the votes for three weeks after that, some of the state-based Covid-forced measures for voting are now permanent. If these are the rules, adapt or die politically.

Mr. Biden, for his part, will have his own record to run on, the usual advantages of incumbency, powerful campaign surrogates who will join him in making the presidential race a referendum on Mr. Trump, and continued calls for a third-party candidate who as a spoiler could do for Mr. Biden what Ross Perot did for Bill Clinton in 1992 deliver the presidency to the Democrat with less than 45 percent of the popular vote.

If the 2024 presidential election is a cage match rematch of Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump, or a combination of other candidates remains to be seen. Each of them defied the odds and defeated more than a dozen intraparty rivals to win their respective primaries. Each of them now faces calls for change, questions about the handling of classified documents and questions about age. For voters, vision matters. It’s hard to win the presidency. Only 45 men (one twice) have been president. Hundreds tried, many of them were told, You can win! even if they lost. Success depends on having mentors who tell you what you need to know, not just what you want to hear. And listening to the people, who have the final say.

Kellyanne Conway is a Republican pollster and political consultant who was Donald J. Trump’s 2016 campaign manager and President Trump’s senior adviser from 2017 to 2020. She is not affiliated with his 2024 presidential campaign.

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