Trump ‘strained’ in New Hampshire complicates 2024 White House bid

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WARE, N.H., Jan. 27 (Reuters) – When Donald Trump defeated his Republican challengers in the 2016 New Hampshire primary, the stunning win for other states announced that the reality TV show was a serious contender. Trump went on to get the Republican nomination and then the White House.

But as the former president begins his bid to reclaim the White House in 2024 with a speech in New Hampshire on Saturday — his first in an early primary — he will find the political landscape more treacherous than it did six years ago, according to party activists, members and state strategists.

In interviews with 10 New Hampshire GOP officials and members, some of whom worked on Trump’s 2016 primary campaign and all of whom have been loyal Trump supporters in the past, Reuters found only three who are sticking with him this time around — including the state. The president, an influential Republican figure who is very enthusiastic about Trump, will step down from office on Saturday to help his campaign.

The rest cited exhaustion with the Trump controversy, discontent with the ongoing drama, and a desire to move on from Trump’s loss in 2020 with a fresh face they believed would have a better chance of winning in 2024.

The Trump campaign did not respond to requests for comment.

Public discontent with the former president is a troubling development for Trump. Analysts say the defeat could complicate his chances of winning the party’s nomination for president, since New Hampshire often gives a candidate a leg up as he heads to other primaries states.

The lack of enthusiasm for the former president and his 2024 prospects could hurt Trump because party operatives do vital ground work for candidates, such as knocking on doors and making phone calls to raise funds and boost turnout.

Most New Hampshire party members who have cooled to Trump said they favor Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis as the party’s standard-bearer, though DeSantis has yet to say whether he’ll launch a bid for the White House.

“Donald Trump right now is distracting the GOP from trying to get ahead. Donald Trump has his course,” said Brian Sullivan, 60, a Hillsborough County Republican committee member who supported Trump in the 2016 primary.

“I’d rather see someone else, like Ron DeSantis, in the race,” Sullivan said.

Sullivan said that while he likes Trump’s policies and praises his accomplishments in office, “he has a lot of baggage. I don’t think he has what it takes to win the White House again.”

The three Republicans who still support Trump said his New Hampshire base remains enthusiastic, he has great name recognition, and many Republican voters love his political achievements while in office, giving him a solid record for running, unlike other potential candidates.

The Trump campaign, in an email to supporters, released a Jan. 24 Emerson College Polling poll showing the former president leading DeSantis nationally among Republican voters, 55% to 29%.

However, the willingness of members of the Republican Party to criticize Trump in their conversations with Reuters is remarkable. Some GOP officials and members who have broken with Trump in the past have faced backlash and online trolling from his supporters.

Lori Davis, 67, got into Republican grassroots politics because of Trump. Back in 2015 when he announced his candidacy, she was an inspiration. She worked on his primary campaign in New Hampshire, knocked on doors for him, and urged anyone she met to vote for him.

Not this time.

“I love Donald Trump. But he’s gone too far in polarization. It’s going to be an uphill battle for him in this primaries because of his division. People are tired of the drama,” Davis said at home over a burger.

“I see people want DeSantis. He has a lot of Trump philosophy, but he’s not bombastic, he doesn’t attack people 24/7. People are tired of it. It gives them a headache,” Davis said.

People want a winner.

It’s not just New Hampshire where Trump faces potential headwinds. Some of the billionaire donors who helped fund his previous campaigns have yet to donate. They include billionaire hedge fund billionaire Robert Mercer and his daughter, Rebecca Mercer. I’ve already donated to DeSantis’ political committee.

New Hampshire plays a large role in selecting presidential candidates because it is the second-most nominating contest after the Iowa caucuses.

While the winner of the New Hampshire Republican primary has not won the state in a general election since George W. Bush in 2000, it is still seen as a litmus test in the nomination process.

Hillsborough County Republican Committee Chairman Chris Maidment described the mood among many members as “Trump fatigue,” adding, “I’m definitely open-minded this time around. There are a lot of interesting potential candidates out there.”

The majority of candidates Trump endorsed lost in competitive races in November’s congressional elections to Democrats. During Trump’s four years as president after his 2016 victory over Democrat Hillary Clinton, the Republicans lost control of both houses of Congress, before he lost the 2020 elections to his Democratic opponent, Joe Biden.

“People want a winner and elections are about the future,” Neal said. “Republicans want someone who can win and won’t be a pressure to the left. Trump has represented that before but I’m not sure he represents that now.” Levesque, executive director of the New Hampshire Institute for Politics at Saint Anselm College.

In a poll Levesque conducted of primary voters in the New Hampshire GOP primary before last November’s election, Trump trailed DeSantis 38% to 47%. Overall, 50% of the state’s voters had a “strongly unfavorable” impression of Trump, with only 22% having a “strongly favorable” impression.

Another complicating factor for Trump this time around is that independents can vote in the Republican and Democratic primaries in New Hampshire. If Biden runs again, the Democratic primary will likely be uncontested, and many independents may choose to vote in the Republican primary where their vote will have more impact.

“Independents go where the business is. A lot of independents are going to vote against Trump. And that’s not good news for him,” said Tom Rath, a Republican strategist in New Hampshire.

Polls in New Hampshire and elsewhere show Trump unpopular with a majority of independents.

Some party strategists said that despite Trump’s signs of fatigue, he would still be a great candidate in the New Hampshire primary.

“He’s still very early in 2023 as the frontrunner. He’s got his name ID number, a solid base of supporters. He’s still pretty big,” said Jim Merrill, a veteran New Hampshire Republican strategist.

Trump is the only Republican to announce his candidacy so far, though the field of challengers is likely to grow this year. Others expected in the race include DeSantis, Trump’s former vice president Mike Pence, and Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor.

Stick to the real deal

For Steve Stepanek, the former state representative who was New Hampshire’s first elected official to endorse Trump in 2015 and chair of the New Hampshire Republican Party, these potential contenders will be lackluster imitations of the real thing.

He told Reuters that he remains a staunch supporter of the former president and is about to step down as party chairman because he wants to participate in Trump’s latest campaign.

A replacement will be elected at a caucus meeting on Saturday, where Trump will be the keynote speaker. It is not yet clear whether Stepanek’s departure will loosen Trump’s grip on the party machinery.

Stepanek accused GOP naysayers of being Republican insiders, not ordinary voters who decide the primaries.

“Would you believe a candidate who says I will continue Trump’s policies — or the man who is Trump’s policies?”

Additional reporting by Tim Reed in Ware, New Hampshire. Editing by Ross Colvin and Susan Goldenberg

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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