The race for the 2024 election continues. But who will face Trump? | Donald Trump

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The starting gun has been fired and the race for the White House is underway. But in Iowa, where the first-in-the-nation Republican caucus is just a year away, the landscape is icy and snowy and eerily quiet.

There is no great mystery as to why: the Donald Trump effect.

These people must be watching Trump’s poll numbers and that’s why there’s a delay, said Art Cullen, editor of Iowas Storm Lake Times. Trump and [Florida governor Ron] DeSantis does this sparring around the ring. Others are watching to see if someone gets hurt and gives them an opening.

At the same stage in 2019, at least a dozen Democratic contenders for the presidency have either been to Iowa or announced plans to visit soon. We get one every week, Cullen recalled, noting that the first major candidate forum took place in March.

But among potential Republican hopefuls for 2024 only former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson has visited so far this year while Tim Scott, a senator for South Carolina, and Kari Lake, a former candidate for governor of Arizona, seen as a possible Trump running mate, has appearances lined up later this month.

Trump, the only declared candidate so far, hasn’t been to Iowa yet but his campaign is finally taking off. Last weekend the former US president spoke to Republicans at small events in two other early voting states, New Hampshire and South Carolina, promising to complete the unfinished business of redistricting. of America. He issues policy statements, builds infrastructure and presents endorsements that signal: catch me if you can.

Kari Lake is seen as a possible Trump running mate for Donald Trump. Photo: Rex/Shutterstock

It’s a surprisingly orthodox approach from the most unorthodox of candidates. The 76-year-old has been impeached twice, blamed for thousands of deaths in the coronavirus pandemic and instigated a violent coup on 6 January 2021. He faces multiple criminal investigations and yet, who with remarkable insouciance, placing himself as the incumbent in all but name and betting on voters’ short memories.

He also lowers the challenge to would-be challengers, who dare to make the first move. While there are signs that some are preparing to take him on, no one has yet launched a full-blown attack on Trump or Trumpism, seemingly wary of earning his ire and alienating his base.

Bill Whalen, a former media consultant for California politicians including former governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, said: I dont think anybody wants to run and be a bad guy wrestler, be seen as the heel which one purpose is just to attack Donald Trump. This is not a ticket to victory and grinding it out because Trump will fire back. What’s the old saying about wrestling a pig in the mud: you get dirty and the pig enjoys it more than you do.

It emerged this week that Nikki Haley, 51, who was governor of South Carolina before serving as Trumps ambassador to the United Nations, plans to announce her candidacy in Charleston on 15 February. In 2021, Haley told the Associated Press that she would not run if President Trump did, but has since changed her mind, telling Fox News that she could be part of a new generational change.

In South Carolina on Saturday, Trump told WIS-TV that Haley had called him days before to ask for his opinion. He said he wouldn’t run against me because I’m the greatest president, but people change their opinions, and they change what’s in their hearts, he said. So I say, if your heart wants to do it, you have to do it.

Trump came down with a hammer, an anvil and a safe from the skyJohn Zogby

Trump seems more threatened and less respectful of DeSantis, who won re-election in a landslide in Florida and is beating him in some opinion polls. Trump, who helped elevate DeSantis in the past, called him Ron DeSanctimonious and said a challenge by DeSantis for the 2024 nomination would be a great act of dishonesty.

But even DeSantis, who is not expected to declare until the Florida legislature adjourns in the spring, has pulled his punches for now. He responded to Trump’s attack with only a coded rebuke, drawing a contrast between his own success and Trump’s failure at the ballot box in 2020: We didn’t just win re-election, we won We have the highest percentage of the vote followed by any Republican governor. candidate is in the history of the state of Florida.

Other possible candidates such as Trump’s former vice-president Mike Pence and his former secretary of state Mike Pompeo have also been careful to criticize their former boss, taking the odd swipe while also praising his administration and their parts in it. Confronting Trump directly carries huge political risks, as rivals like Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio discovered through name-calling, insults and shaming in 2016.

Former vice-president Mike Pence is also widely considered a candidate in the 2024 presidential race. Photo: Michael M Santiago/Getty Images

John Zogby, an author and pollster, said: There is a sense that breaking up with Donald Trump is a very thankless task. Trump came down with a hammer, an anvil and a safe from heaven. Although it is clear that much of the magic has gone from Trump, by the same token he can do extensive damage. He still has his own forum and his own loyal following and he can absorb all the negative oxygen. Whether Trump wins or loses, he’s blocking.

Still, Trump will soon be on the campaign trail, not least because primaries often draw long-shot candidates who will gladly accept the consolation prize of a book deal, radio show, TV pundit gig or slot as winning running mates.

State governors who may seek to build their brand nationally include Greg Abbott of Texas, Brian Kemp of Georgia, Kristi Noem of South Dakota, Kim Reynolds of Iowa, Chris Sununu of New Hampshire and Glenn Youngkin of Virginia .

It remains to be seen whether staunch Trump critics like Liz Cheney, a former congressman from Wyoming, and Larry Hogan, the former governor of Maryland, will throw their hats in the ring. Some observers expect such a candidate to win a primary more likely to offer voters a different flavor of Make America great again (Maga), with culture warrior DeSantis seeking to prove his itself a younger, more dynamic version of the brand than the original Trump.

Drexel Heard, a Democratic strategist said: Its going to be very interesting to see how Maga Nikki Haley becomes in the primary. I think Nikki Haley is smart but she’s going to have to go full tilt on Maga to get through this primary because she’s up against someone like Ron DeSantis, who is coming out of the gate with red meat.

Trump’s former secretary of state Mike Pompeo is a possible candidate in the 2024 race. Photo: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

With a fiercely loyal base, Trump is benefiting from a divided field, just as he did in 2016. In South Carolina he has already secured the endorsements of Governor Henry McMaster and Senator Lindsey Graham, who stole the show. to Haley and Scott within the state. But as Trump seeks to normalize himself in a traditional campaign today, there are also important differences from seven years ago.

Whalen, the former California consultant who is now a research fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University in Palo Alto, said: First, there are legal issues. Now, some are more serious than others but if you’re running for president and you’re taking the fifth amendment 400 times, it’s not a good look for a candidate.

Second, he has a record to deal with that he doesn’t have. Donald Trump was a hypothetical in 2015 and 2016, a tabula rasa when it came to holding office. Now he has four years in office to explain. He’s not a hypothetical, he’s somebody who has had the job before, so voters have to make the calculation: do they want him to be reinstated?

Third, there is no one like Ron DeSantis in 2016. There is no one quite like DeSantis in terms of being able to do three things at once: make money, point to a very successful record in his state and play the game which Trump played. That’s why DeSantis was an option that wasn’t there for Republicans in 2016. In 2024, there’s someone who can potentially fight fire with fire.

DeSantis was an option that wasn’t there for Republicans in 2016. In 2024, there’s someone … who can fight fire with fireBill Whalen

Other commentators agree that, despite a slow start in Iowa, the Republican primary looks set to be more competitive than anyone imagined last year. The party is willing to overlook any number of Trump’s lies and misdemeanors but not the miserable performance of his handpicked candidates in last November’s midterm elections. The self-proclaimed winner has turned out to be a serial loser: his fundraising numbers so far have been pretty disappointing.

Larry Jacobs, director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota, said: I don’t see a lot of fear of Trump. I think there was a really broad agreement in Republican circles that Trump was weak and that he was going to lose. Moreover, he may be even more vulnerable to future indictments. For me what is happening now is just confirmation that Trump’s grip on the Republican party is loosening.

I’d say it’s pretty open. Trump is a favorite but he’s got some very serious long-term viability issues in the field that clearly no longer scare him. Republicans are tired of losing.

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