Is the US in a space race against China?

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Svetla Ben-Itzhak, University of the Air Force

Headlines proclaiming the rise of a new space race between the United States and China have become commonplace in news coverage after many of the exciting launches in recent years. Experts have pointed to China’s rapid progress in space as evidence of an emerging landscape in which China is directly competing with the United States for supremacy.

This idea of ​​a space race between China and the United States seems compelling given the larger narrative of China’s rise, but how accurate is it? As a professor who studies space and international relations, my research aims to quantify the power and capabilities of different nations in space. When I look at the various capabilities, the data paints a much more complex picture of a tight space race between the US and China. At least for now, the reality looks more like what I call a complex hegemony, one state, the United States, is still dominating in key space capabilities, and this advantage is further magnified by a strong partner network.

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Calling the current situation a race implies that the United States and China have roughly equal capabilities in space. But in several key areas, the United States is far ahead of not just China, but all other spacefaring nations combined.

Starting with spending: In 2021, the US space budget was approximately $59.8 billion. China has invested heavily in space and rocket technology over the past decade and has doubled spending over the past five years. But with an estimated budget of $16.18 billion in 2021, it’s still spending less than a third of the US budget.

The United States also significantly leads the number of active satellites. Currently, there are 5,465 total operational satellites orbiting the Earth. The United States operates 3,433, or 63%. In contrast, China has 541.

Similarly, the United States has more active spaceports than China. With seven launch sites operational at home and abroad and at least 13 additional spaceports under development, the United States has more options for launching payloads into various orbits. In contrast, China has only four operational spaceports with two more planned, all located within its territory.

Parity with nuance

While the United States may have a clear advantage over China in many areas of space, in some measures the differences between the two countries are more nuanced.

In 2021, for example, China attempted 55 orbital launches, four more than the United States’ 51. The total numbers might be similar, but the rockets carried very different payloads into orbit. The vast majority of 84% of Chinese launches had government or military payloads primarily intended for electronic intelligence and optical imaging. Meanwhile, in the United States, 61% of launches were for non-military, academic or commercial use, predominantly for Earth observation or telecommunications.

Space stations are another area where there are major differences hidden beneath the surface. Since the 1990s, the United States has partnered with 14 other nations, including Russia, to operate the International Space Station. The ISS is quite large, with 16 modules, and has led to technological and scientific breakthroughs. But the ISS is now 24 years old and participating nations are planning to retire it in 2030.

China’s Tiangong Space Station is new to the block. The construction was only completed at the end of 2022 and is much smaller with only three modules. China built and launched all the different parts and remains the sole operator of the station, despite inviting others to join.

China is undoubtedly expanding its space capabilities, and in a report released in August 2022, the Pentagon predicted that China would surpass US space capabilities as early as 2045. However, the US is unlikely to remain stagnant , as they continue to increase funding for the space.

Allies as force multipliers

An important point of difference between the United States and China is the nature and number of international collaborations.

For decades, NASA has cultivated fruitful international and commercial partnerships in everything from developing specific space technologies to flying humans into space. The US government has also signed 169 space data sharing agreements with 33 states and intergovernmental organizations, 129 with commercial partners and seven with academic institutions.

China also has allies helping with space, most notably Russia and members of the Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Organization, including Iran, Pakistan, Thailand and Turkey. China’s collaborators, however, are fewer in number and have far less developed space capabilities.

Efforts to return to the surface of the Moon excellently highlight this difference in ally support and synergy. Both the United States and China have plans to send people to the surface of the Moon and to establish lunar bases in the near future. These competing lunar targets are often cited as evidence of the space race, but they are very different in terms of partnership and scope.

In 2019, Russia and China agreed to go to the Moon together by 2028. Russia is contributing its Luna landers and Oryol manned orbiters, while China is improving its Change robotic spacecraft. Their future international lunar research station is open to all interested parties and international partners, but, to date, no other country has committed to the Chinese and Russian effort.

In contrast, since 2020, 24 nations have joined the US-led Artemis Accords. This international agreement outlines shared principles of cooperation for future space activity and, through the Artemis program, specifically aims to return people to the Moon by 2025 and establish a lunar base and a lunar space station soon after.

In addition to broad international participation, the Artemis program has contracted with an impressive number of private companies to develop a range of technologies, from lunar landers to lunar construction methods and more.

China isn’t the only game in town

While China may appear to be the United States’ main competitor in space, other countries have space capabilities and aspirations that rival those of China.

India spends billions on space and plans to return to the moon, possibly with Japan, in the near future. South Korea, Israel, Japan, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, Germany and the European Union are also planning independent lunar missions. Japan has developed impressive space technology capabilities, including proximity rendezvous technology to send a spacecraft to an asteroid and bring samples back to Earth, that rival and even surpass those of China.

In the past, the space race was about who could reach the stars first and go home. Today the focus has shifted to survival and even prosperity in the harsh environment of space. I think it’s not surprising that, despite its decisive advantage, the United States has teamed up with others to go to the moon and beyond. China is doing the same, but on a smaller scale. The picture that emerges is not one of a race but of a complex system with the United States as the leader working closely with vast networks of partners.

Svetla Ben-Itzhak, Assistant Professor of Space and International Relations, Air University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license.

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