Analysis: Tight 2024 Republican race helps clear path for Trump’s nomination

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[1/5] Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump attends a campaign event in Manchester, New Hampshire, US, April 27, 2023. REUTERS/Brian Snyder//File Photo

June 5 (Reuters) – A growing number of contenders for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination could pave the way for Donald Trump’s victory while throwing up obstacles for his main rival Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, party members said. and strategists.

Republicans who fear Trump is too polarizing a figure to defeat Democratic President Joe Biden in 2024 worry that if too many candidates enter the party’s race, they will split the anti-Trump vote. That would allow the former president to secure the nomination, as he did in similar circumstances in 2016.

Former Vice President Mike Pence, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, and North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum plan to enter the fray this week, bringing the number of challengers to front-runner Trump to double digits.

Political analysts estimate that Trump will be able to rely on a diehard core of supporters, who make up at least a third of Republican voters, to help him secure his party’s nomination.

DeSantis is aggressively courting those voters, but few are expected to defect from Trump. If DeSantis has any hope of becoming the Republican nominee, political analysts said, he will have to try to win over a large share of the other roughly 70% of eligible voters.

DeSantis must compete with a raft of Republican rivals for those votes. To be sure, many of the candidates are long shots who barely registered in the opinion polls, but they could still hinder DeSantis’ efforts to build the coalition he needs to take on Trump.

“I’m very concerned that it appears we’re making the same mistakes we made in 2016,” said Larry Hogan, a popular former Republican governor of Maryland and a fierce critic of Trump.

Hogan seriously considered taking on Trump but decided earlier this year against entering the race because he feared a large field of contenders would only help the former president repeat his 2016 victory, losing he is the 17 main candidates.

“It’s better for us to have a smaller field with a strong candidate or two than 10 or more people who don’t get attention, who are all in one number,” in opinion polls, Hogan said in an interview.

“The only one benefiting from that at this point in time appears to be Donald Trump,” said Hogan, a moderate who wants the party to move away from Trump. “This is the definition of insanity that keeps doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.”

However, right now it’s essentially a two-man race.

Trump leads the field among potential Republican primary voters with 49% support followed by DeSantis with 19%. There is a yawning gulf between the front-runners and the rest of the field: Pence has 5% support, while former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley has 4%, according to the latest Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll conducted in May.

Others barely register. Christie has just 1% supporting him, as does US Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, while former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, who declared in April, has 0%.

WHY ARE LONG SHOTS STILL RUNNING

A casual observer might ask why candidates with low poll numbers are jumping into a race that already has a clear front-runner early on.

“Most come in because they really think they have a chance to win the nomination,” said Oscar Brock, a member of the Republican National Committee from Tennessee.

Some know they can’t win, said John Feehery, a Republican strategist, but they may be angling for a cabinet position, or hoping to join the ticket of the late nominee as a vice presidential candidate, or seeking just 15 minutes of fame to be sure. a book deal.

Long shots have also emerged from nowhere to win past nominating battles, Feehery said, including Democrat Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Trump, who polled just 4% when he announced his candidacy. in June 2015.

Many may also have decided to enter the race in 2024 because of the perceived weaknesses of the two front runners, Feehery said. Trump faces potential indictments for withholding classified documents and seeking to overturn the results of the 2020 election, while DeSantis is trying to regain his footing after slipping in opinion polls.

“These candidates who are trying to be the successor see DeSantis constantly stumbling and making mistakes. And they’re saying, ‘Well, why not me?'” said Jason Miller, a senior Trump adviser.

Perhaps with one eye on the soon-to-be-expanded field, DeSantis finally started punching back against Trump on the campaign trail last week after enduring a vicious attack by his former ally for months.

Tim Reid reporting in Los Angeles; Additional reporting by Nathan Layne in Laconia, New Hampshire, editing by Ross Colvin and Grant McCool

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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