A New Poll on Trump Indictments Has Surprising Results

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POLITICO Magazine commissioned this poll because we thought, despite some initial polling after Trump’s federal indictment, that we could dig deeper into public sentiment. How much do people really understand about the charges Trump is facing and do they believe he is guilty? What kind of punishments do they think fit the crimes if he is convicted? And, of course, what effect does all this have on Trump’s presidential candidacy?

The poll was conducted from June 27 to June 28, roughly three weeks after Trump’s federal indictment and nearly three months after Trump was criminally indicted by the Manhattan District Attorneys office. The poll sampled 1,005 adults age 18 or older, who were interviewed online; it has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points for all respondents.

At this point, roughly half of the country believes that Trump committed the crimes alleged against him.

Forty-nine percent of respondents including 25 percent of Republicans said they believe Trump is guilty of pending federal prosecution, which alleges he intentionally kept sensitive government documents after leaving office and obstructed a subsequent federal investigation. A nearly identical 48 percent of respondents, including 24 percent of Republicans, believe Trump is guilty of pending prosecution of Manhattan DAs, who said Trump falsified business records in connection with paying the porn star Stormy Daniels in the run-up to the 2016 election to silence him about an alleged sexual relationship between the two.

On the question of timing, however, there is more unanimity.

Nearly two-thirds of respondents (62 percent) said the pending federal prosecution should take place before next November’s presidential election, a figure that includes nearly half of Republican respondents (46 percent). A smaller number, but a solid majority, said the test should take place before the Republican primaries begin early next year (57 percent of all respondents, including 42 percent of Republican respondents ).

The findings could bolster the position of federal prosecutors, who are pushing for an early December trial date. Trump is expected to try to drag out the proceedings as long as possible, especially since he is likely to shut down the prosecution if re-elected. But federal law governing the setting of trial dates requires judges to consider not only the interests of defendants but also the best interests of the public.

What should happen to Trump if he is convicted? Forty-three percent said he should be jailed, but most were willing to serve him in prison. Nearly a quarter of respondents said Trump should not receive any punishment (22 percent), while 18 percent said he should receive probation and another 17 percent said he should only face a financial penalty. punishment

The results were almost identical when respondents were asked what the punishment should be if Trump were convicted in Manhattan. A majority of respondents said Trump should not go to jail and instead he should receive either no prison term, probation, or just a financial penalty (21 percent, 17 percent and 22 percent, respectively) .

In both instances, a clear partisan breakdown was evident. For the DOJ case, 73 percent of Democrats thought Trump should be jailed if convicted, compared to 16 percent of Republicans and 33 percent of independents. For the Manhattan DA case, 65 percent of Democrats supported prison time, compared to 14 percent of Republicans and 36 percent of independents.

The results also complicate the post-prosecution narrative that the charges improved Trump’s chances of winning his party’s presidential nomination. It’s true that he’s gained support in the polls since the accusations, but our survey suggests they haven’t changed Republicans’ opinion of his campaign. While 21 percent of GOP respondents said the federal indictment over the mishandling of classified documents made them less likely to support Trump, 23 percent said it made them less likely; fully 50 percent said it had no effect and 6 percent said they did not know. The results were similar for Manhattan DAs indicted on paying hush money.

To the wider public, a conviction in either case would damage Trump’s election chances. A similar number of 41 percent of all respondents said a conviction in either the federal case or the Manhattan DAs case would make them more likely to support the former president. Despite all the comments that he is Teflon Don, it is clear that some of his missteps can cost him.

The results also suggest the numbers could worsen as Americans learn about pending charges. About one-third of respondents said they were not particularly familiar with the allegations in either case.

That number may drop as media coverage continues, especially in the face of potential trials. A trial date in the Manhattan DAs’ case is currently set to begin on March 25, though it’s conceivable that, as a practical matter, Trump could lock up the nomination by then if the dynamics in the GOP primary don’t change. So far, most of his opponents have struggled to articulate a message that distinguishes themselves from Trump while appealing to a voter base that largely sticks with him despite his mounting legal troubles.

The public’s preference for a relatively quick trial date in the federal prosecution against Trump may prove difficult to accommodate. Many legal observers are skeptical that a trial is possible next year, especially given the complexity of a case involving classified documents and a defendant who has historically proven adept at mounting aggressive attacks. delay strategy.

In fact, according to the most recent statistics available, the median time from filing to disposition on felony charges in the Southern District of Florida, where the federal case against Trump is pending, is nine months. But that number is almost certainly dragged down by the fact that the vast majority of federal criminal cases are resolved through guilty pleas and that very few district trials, if any, result in type of complexities against the first criminal prosecution. a former US president will pose, specifically regarding classified information.

However, if the prosecutors and the presiding judge want to look at the law and satisfy the public interest, they can point to the results from this poll.

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