XEC Variant May Be Driving ‘Silent’ COVID-19 Surge In December 2024

Looks like yet another end-of-the-year COVID-19 surge is happening. But this year it seems to be getting a whole lot less attention than such COVID surges in previous years. That’s helped earn this latest upswing the following nickname: the “silent” COVID-19 surge. But this doesn’t mean that you should simply stay in an enjoy the silence mode and be lulled into a false sense of security. Failing to take appropriate precautions could leave you open to getting COVID, both the long and the short of it.

XEC Variant Has Become Dominant In COVID-19 Surge

It shouldn’t be too surprising that the colder and drier weather is bringing a surge this time of the year as it has had each year since 2020. The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 just keeps doing what it does oh-so-well: it just keeps mutating and mutating and mutating, resulting in more and more variants. Leading the charge now silently—because viruses don’t talk—is the XEC variant of the SARS-CoV-2. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated that the XEC variant has comprised 45% of SARS-CoV-2 infections from December 8 through December 21. In second place was the KP.3.1.1 at 24% followed by the LP.8.1 at 8%. None of the rest of the alphabet soup of FLiRT family descendants constituted more than 5% of the bunch.

Wastewater Surveillance Data Suggests COVID-19 Surge

The number one indication that a COVID surge is happening right now is from a number two thing: wastewater surveillance, which is basically testing samples of poop-filled sewage water for the virus. A CDC map of the U.S. shows that in the December 8-14 time period, wastewater viral activity of SARS-CoV-2 activity in wastewater samples was measured to be either “high” or “very high” in 21 states. That’s after many states remained at moderate-to-low levels throughout much of the Fall.

While wastewater surveillance is far from a complete waste, the accuracy of wastewater surveillance does depend on where and how often samples are taken. Just because measured SARS-CoV-2 activity is low doesn’t necessarily mean that virus isn’t spreading substantially among the human population. There can be a substantial delay between people getting infected and the virus being detected in wastewater. Additionally, it’s never a good idea to rely on a single measure for anything. That’s kind of why dating profiles have more than just height listed on them.

Lack Of Comprehensive And Proactive Surveillance Data System Makes It Difficult To Detect COVID-19 Surge

These days it’s actually a whole lot harder to figure out when and where there’s a COVID surge. If you go to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention COVID Data Tracker, the first things that you’ll find are four measures. The first is the test positivity rate listed as 5.6% for the week ending December 14, 2024, which is higher than the 5.1% from the previous week. This no longer has the accuracy that it may have had back in 2020 when a lot more testing was going on and being reported. Also, you’ll notice that it’s been two weeks since that week so that value isn’t exactly up to date.

The other three measures listed are:

• The percentage of all emergency room visits that received a COVID-19 diagnosis: This was 0.7% for the week ending December 14, which was the same as the week prior. These numbers may not be very accurate because it’s not clear how many people visiting the ER are getting tested for COVID these days. Moreover, ER data has always been an after-the-surge-has-already-been-occurring-for-a-while measure. People won’t go to the ER until after they develop severe enough symptoms, which can be one to two weeks after they got infected.
• The number of hospitalizations per 100,000 people in the population: This was 1.6 for the week ending November 30 and down from 1.7 the week prior. But the week ending November 30 is even more out-of-date than the week ending December 14. Hospitalization data have the same aforementioned weaknesses that ER data do.
• The percentage of all deaths that were due to COVID: This was 1.1% for the week ending December 14 up from 0.8% the week prior. This is also an after-the-surge-has-already-been-occurring-for-a-while measure

Additionally, these three measure are sort of like overly large shoulder pads, skinny jeans and oversized logo clothing—a bit out of date as the primary measures. The nature of COVID has changed since the earlier pandemic days. As more and more people have gotten more and more exposure to the spike protein through vaccination and infection, people’s immune systems are less “virginal” to the virus and instead know how to better handle SARS-CoV-2. This probably has helped more severe acute COVID-19 outcomes less and less likely.

That doesn’t mean that the SARS-CoV-2 is no longer a significant threat. A SARS-CoV-2 infection continues to bring the risk of long Covid. The exact risk is not known because long Covid hasn’t been aggressively followed. In fact, the number of current long Covid cases is not really since the U.S. never really developed an effective surveillance system for long Covid.

You’ve also probably heard the term silent but deadly. Just because the risk of death from COVID-19 is now lower than it was in the early years of the pandemic doesn’t mean that it can’t happen. This is especially true if your immune system is weaker.

How To Protect Yourself During This Silent COVID-19 Surge

Of course, not talking about COVID-19 doesn’t mean that it has gone away. The trouble, though, is many people are acting as if COVID has gone the way of the sweater vest and not taking enough precautions, you know all those things the pandemic was supposed to teach us. These include:

• Washing your hands frequently and thoroughly: Remember to lather up with soap for at least 20 seconds, which is the amount of time it takes to since from the start to the end of the first chorus in the song “I Touch Myself,” as I’ve written previously for Forbes. This remains important not just against SARS-CoV-2 but also against the multitude of other pathogens out there, including the flu.
• Staying home when you’re sick: You are not that important for work or that party, certainly not important to get everyone else sick.
• Practicing appropriate social distancing: If that coughing stranger wants to sidle up to you to talk about psychedelics, crypto or whatever, keep your distance.
• Keeping indoor spaces well-ventilated with air purification: This can include using a HEPA (High Efficiency Particle Arresting) filter to remove harmful particles from the air.
• Wear a face mask when and where the risk is higher such as crowded public indoor locations: Sure, some political and business leaders have managed to politicize the heck out of face masks. But N95 masks are designed to block virus particles, and scientific studies have supported the effectiveness in reducing the risk of transmission.
• Getting the updated COVID-19 vaccine: The protection offered by vaccination tends to begin waning at the four to six month mark. Plus the vaccine from previous years targeted much earlier version of the virus.

Again, the 2024 edition of the end-of-year COVID-19 surge may not be getting attention from political leaders. But as history has shown, just because political leaders don’t talk about something doesn’t mean that it isn’t a problem.