Which MLB player will take the HR Derby crown?

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Single shot illustration: Getty Images

Yesterday, the 2021 Home Run Derby arc at Coors Field (the Home Run Derbies for it) arc was filled when Washington’s young star Juan Soto and Texas Rangers Joey Gallo announced they would compete in the annual slugfest competition.

Photo: Getty Images

This lineup is absolute fire, albeit not perfect. I would have preferred to have seen Bryce Harper of Philadelphia and Kyle Schwarber of Washington instead of Salvador Perez and Juan Soto, but we got Harper and Schwarber in 2018, so they can take the back seat for now. Maybe Vlady Jr. could have reappeared, but there was still fire.

Each of these guys is a great force, and regardless of the 2019 Derby Champ Pete Alonso (there was no 2020 Derby due to COVID) looking to defend his crown, this is every derby’s debut for every rider. So, what will happen? Let’s try to crack this thing and see who we bet on.

The main stats we need to look at to determine who will come out victorious are the launch angle, exit velocity, and barrel ratio. How often do these hitters make the best possible contact with the ball, and when they make that contact, do they release the ball at high speeds and at a running angle at home?

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It is very easy to notice the exit velocity and barrel ratio. You want to hit the ball as high as possible, and obviously the harder you hit the ball, the better. You can never get too high an exit speed. But what is the best angle to send the ball? Well, according to Baseball Savant, the best shooting angle for home runs is 29 degrees. At an exit speed of 100 mph, speculators hit their toes at 51.2 percent — the highest from any angle.

Screenshot: Baseball Savant

At 110 mph, every ball hit this season at a 29-degree angle leaves the arena.

Screenshot: Baseball Savant

Ohtani currently leads the MLB in barrel ratio among hitters with at least 250 plate appearances, and he is spoiling his competition. Otani throws foul balls at him 25.9 percent of the time—more than five percent higher than the next qualifying hitter: Fernando Tates Jr. (21.3 percent). The order of the other derby runners is as follows:

Gallo – Fifth (19.4 percent)

Alonso – 12th (15.7 per cent)

Perez – 22nd place (14.1 percent)

Olson – 25 (13.9 percent)

Mancini – 30 (12.8 percent)

Soto – 46 (11.2 per cent)

Story – 83 (9.0 per cent)

Obviously it would be easier for every player to make good contact on the Home Run Derby balls, as they are thrown by the bowler trying to help the hitter hit the bombs, but that’s still a good indication of how much players can make adjustments. To pitches on the fly. Ahtani blows the competition out of the water.

After that, get out of speed. The harder the ball hits the racket, the more distance it will fly. makes sense.

The best derby contender in this category is once again: Otani. The Angels’ slugger ranks eighth in Major League Baseball in average exit speed, and is one of only three players to have hit a ball at least 119 miles per hour off the bat this season. The other two are Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge – each winning their own Home Run Derby (Stanton: 2016; Judge: 2017).

Salvador Pérez (12th in average exit speed), Joey Gallo (17), Juan Soto (18) and Matt Olson (28) are the only other contenders in the top 30 in the league. Every other competitor ranks outside the top 50.

Finally, the launch angle. We’ve already established that 29 degrees is the best shooting angle for hitting a home run. While no hitter in the league comes close to the average of that corner, the closest to that magic number is Joey Gallo, who shoots balls at a 21-degree average—good for a sixth in the league. Ohtani ranks second among the derby participants as he sits at a cool 17.7–20 in the MLB. Olson and Trevor Storey died right behind with average angles of 17.3 and 17.2, respectively.

So, after all is said and done, Ohtani has to be the obvious favourite. After all, Sho-Time leads the league in running at home. According to Action Network, Ohtani has a +400 chance of coming out with the cup – the highest of anyone in the field.

In the three major categories to determine viability at the Home Run Derby, Ohtani ranks first, first and second among derby participants. This begs the question: Is there anyone in the league who can stack for Otani? Is there anyone who ranks high or close to Ohtani in all three categories? Yes there is, probably not who you think.

Tampa Bay catcher Mike Zunino beats Ohtani in two of the three categories. Although Rise’s backer has only made 204 board appearances this season – thus leaving him well off the leaderboard I was referring to earlier – Zunino hits the ball with a 27.5 percent clip, one and a half points higher than Ohtani. Zunino is also the hitter who shoots balls closest to the magical 29-degree launch angle. Zunino currently averages an angle of 26.6 degrees. Although it leaves little to be desired in the exit speed class, Zunino still ranks in the league’s top 30 among hitters with at least 200 plate appearances. In terms of top speed, he fired a ball at 117.3 mph off the bat this season — good for sixth in MLB.

Unfortunately, Zunino will not make it to the 2021 Home Run Derby race board. Among the hitters, after taking all the data into account, Ohtani appears to be the best bet. As much as I’d like to see Trey Mancini walk away from the cup less than a year after defeating colon cancer, he probably has the worst odds of winning given his numbers. As of now, I’m expecting an Otani Olsson final, with Ohtani winning the cup. This must be great I’m looking forward to it.

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