Mortgage and Refinancing Rates Today, October 21 | Rates are rising

Today’s Mortgage and Refinancing Rate

Average mortgage interest rates remained stable yesterday. And that was a pleasant surprise. Because an increase earlier in the day seemed likely. Of course, these rates remain exceptionally low by historical standards.

again, Mortgage rates today seem likely to rise. But remember what happened yesterday: these predictions are not an exact science.

Find and Lock in a Low Fare (Oct 21, 2021)

Current Mortgage and Refinancing Rates

Find and Lock in a Low Fare (Oct 21, 2021)

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COVID-19 mortgage updates: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. Click here for the latest news about the consequences of the coronavirus for your home loan.

Should You Block a Mortgage Interest Today?

I think that a sharp fall in mortgage rates is unlikely at the moment. But further increases in the coming days and weeks seem likely.

So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:

• KEY LOCK when you get closer 7 to dawn
• KEY LOCK when you get closer 15 to dawn
• KEY LOCK when you get closer 30 to dawn
• KEY LOCK when you get closer 45 to dawn
• KEY LOCK when you get closer 60 to dawn

However, I am not claiming perfect foresight. And your personal analysis may turn out to be just as good as mine — or better. So you can choose to be guided by your instincts and your personal tolerance for risk.

Market Data Affecting Current Mortgage Rates

Here’s a snapshot of the situation this morning at approximately 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared to about the same time yesterday, was:

• The yield on 10-year Treasury bills sharp to 1.66% from 1.64%. (Bad for mortgage interest.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally track these specific government bond yields
• Major stock indices were usually lower shortly after opening. (Good for mortgage interest deduction.When investors buy stocks, they often sell bonds, causing their prices to fall and yields and mortgage rates to rise. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
• Oil prices Rose until $82.60 from $81.88 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage interest*.) Energy prices play a major role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity.
• gold prices slightly higher to $1,782 from $1,781 a U.S. (Neutral for mortgage interest*.) In general, it is better for prices when gold is rising, and worse when gold is falling. Gold tends to rise when investors are concerned about the economy. And concerned investors tend to cut interest rates
• CNN Business Fear & Greed Index — climbed to 69 from 67 (end of last night) out of 100. (Bad for mortgage interest.) “greedy” investors push bond prices (and interest rates) down as they exit the bond market and move into equities, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower values ​​are better than higher

*A change of less than $20 in gold prices or 40 cents in oil prices is a fraction of 1%. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for the mortgage interest rate.

Reservation on markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and get a pretty good estimate of what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that is no longer the case. We still call daily. And they are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t reach its former highs until things settle down.

So use markets only as a rough guideline. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to be able to rely on them. But with that caveat, Mortgage rates today seem likely to rise. But keep in mind that “intraday swings” (when prices change direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

Find and Lock in a Low Fare (Oct 21, 2021)

Important Notes About Today’s Mortgage Rates

Here are some things you should know:

1. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy is doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How Mortgage Interest Rates Are Determined and Why Should You Worry?
2. Only top-tier borrowers (with excellent credit scores, large down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultra-low mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the masses when it comes to daily price movements – although they usually all follow the broader trend over time
4. When the daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust the closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
5. Refinance rates are usually close to those for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has narrowed a gap that existed before

So a lot is happening here. And no one can claim to know for sure what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.

Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?

Today and so forth

Thank goodness for unexciting times for mortgage rates. And the last few days have not been exciting.

Let’s hope it stays that way. Because those rates remain very close to their five-month high. And we don’t want them to climb any higher until they absolutely have to.

But they probably will. And we’ll be lucky if they stay where they are until the next big move trigger happens on November 3. That’s when the Federal Reserve is likely to announce that, beginning in mid-November, it will phase out its program that has kept mortgage rates artificially low for the past 18 months.

There is a good chance that the mortgage interest rate will rise. In the meantime, of course, they can move up or down in response to economic reports and relevant news. But I suspect the best we can hope for is an obvious lack of excitement.