‘The Great Resignation’ isn’t really a thing. Something else is.

Do not do it. Don’t fall into the head trap. “The Great Resignation” isn’t really a thing. Something else is happening.

We have entered an era that should be known as “The Great Contemplation”. That is the trendline that people should be concerned about. And in people, think human resources, talent directors, and leaders in general.

But unfortunately it is about to get ugly.

The real data

Yes, of course the overall quit rates – especially in the US – in July, August and September of this year are higher than in 2020.

Not a huge amount, but the rates are definitely higher. When you dig deeper into the US data through the Labor Statistics Bureau, the most significant increases are in leisure & hospitality, retail, and education & health services.

Where the problem lies is the tendency of social and mainstream media to grab a headline and completely overlook the trendline. Some even mistake the headline for the trendline.

What’s the trend?

Knowledge workers (like many on here) Forbes) are in pandemic-induced contemplation, furiously thinking about their next career move. Not yet. But quickly. It’s going to get very real.

However, it is not the quit rates that we should be concerned about. Instead, it is the contemplation rates of quitting that are troubling.

Actual shutdown rates do show increases across all sectors — from 2.3% to 3.0% between September 2020 and September 2021 — but it’s not like it’s hit double digits. Yet.

The real trendline

The more alarming statistic has to do with what’s brewing. It doesn’t seem to matter what research you review or what research has been conducted; it seems almost everyone is thinking about moving on to a new role.

According to a recent survey by job site Joblist, 73% of respondents are considering leaving their position in 2022. In another example, CNBC, the gender equality firm Catalyst and Harris Poll have a report titled “The Great Work/Life Divide” and found that nearly 50% of workers are considering leaving their jobs.

The researchers also wrote, “About 41% of those surveyed say they are considering leaving their jobs because their company has not been concerned about their concerns during the pandemic.” there’s that word care again.

These alarming rates of contemplation stats have been going on since about the summer of 2020. Depending on what piece of research or survey you view, the quit rate contemplation stats range between 40% and 80%. That is to say, there are millions of employees worldwide who are envisioning their next step in 2022.

What’s really happening?

Now, more than ever before, people are doing the mental and emotional legwork and wondering:

• Is my boss a jerk? Are they nice?
• Do my teammates care about me?
• Does my organization stand for something?
• Am I being paid fairly, respected and valued?
• Is the culture something I can work in?
• Is hybrid or flexible working allowed?
• Am I unfulfilled or fulfilled in my role?

That’s what’s different. People swim in a cocoon of questions.

In the year 2022, contemplation will turn into a talent war. In fact, it is no longer called a talent war; we are heading for a talent apocalypse.

Brace yourself. Better yet, if you’re a chief human resource officer, talent director, or leader at any level, now’s your chance to do something about it.

The Great Resignation is just the headline. It could become something, but it isn’t at the moment.

The responsibility lies with preventing the Great Contemplation from turning into the talent apocalypse.

And that itself starts with an audit of your organizational culture, employee experience and leadership practices.

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