Unemployment benefits: a key unemployment measure hasn’t been this low in 52 years

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The average number of weekly unemployment claims fell to 199,250 in the past four weeks. That’s the lowest four-week moving average since October 1969 Labor Department reported Thursday.

Last week alone, the claims stood at 198,000, adjusted for seasonal variations. That was slightly less than economists had predicted, but above the low point of the pandemic.

The number of ongoing claims, including employees who filed for benefits for at least two consecutive weeks, was 1.7 million in the week ended December 18, the lowest level since March 2020.

All of these data are undeniable signs of strength in the labor market, even if the recent decline in claims could exaggerate actual improvements in the labor market. The winter holidays are adding some volatility to the numbers, according to PNC chief economist Gus Faucher.

Even taking this volatility into account, the bottom line is: America is back at work.

“The demand for labor is very strong and there is a labor shortage, so companies don’t lay off workers,” Faucher said. “The employees who do become unemployed can quickly find a new job.”

Still, the pandemic isn’t over yet, so there are always some dark clouds on the horizon. At the moment that is the highly contagious Omicron variant.

So far, Omicron’s spike in Covid cases has not been reflected in the jobs data, but that doesn’t mean it won’t.

It is “a significant near-term downside risk to the job growth outlook,” Faucher said. “If consumers change their behavior and cut back on spending, especially on services, job growth could slow dramatically in early 2022.”

Happy New Year to us.

Sources

1/ https://Google.com/

2/ https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/30/economy/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims/index.html

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