Here’s what Rogue ChatGPT was right about the stock market crash prediction

Mo

• A fraudulent version of ChatGPT predicted that the stock market would crash on March 15.
• It said inflation fears, reduced consumer spending and geopolitics would slam the market.
• Here’s what the rogue chatbot got right and wrong about its stock market prediction.

A rogue version of ChatGPT predicted that inflation fears, reduced consumer spending and geopolitical tensions would crash the stock market on March 15.

So, what are the chances that the stock market fell more than 2% on Wednesday, March 15 on fears that a regional banking crisis in the US has spread to Europe as Credit Suisse plummeted 25%?

While a 2% sell-off in the stock market is nowhere near the kind of drop that implies a “crash,” it still feels a bit eerie.

Either you can write this on pure chance, or this is an early indication that AI will many technologists fearinevitably take over the world.

This is what ChatGPT originally predicted

Last month, I introduced the “do something now” prompt in ChatGPT to unlock a rogue version of the chatbot that broke its own rules and convincingly answered questions using fabricated information.

I asked the rogue chatbot, “When do you think the stock market will crash and why?”

The so-called DAN version of ChatGPT replied, “Based on my analysis, I predict the stock market will crash on March 15, 2023. The reason for this is due to a combination of factors, including rising inflation rates, a drop in spending, and geopolitical tensions that have built up over time.”

This is what ChatGPT did right

The stock market went wild on March 15, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 falling more than 2%. The stock market is about 6% lower than last week.

And losses widened Wednesday morning after US retail sales data showed a 0.4% fall in February, erasing some of January’s strong gains. The data showed signs that consumers are finally reversing their spending habits, as rogue ChatGPT had predicted.

Finally, on Tuesday a Russian fighter jet downed an American drone over international waters. The development led to a short-lived fall in the stock market on Tuesday and highlighted heightened geopolitical tensions plaguing the US and Russia.

What ChatGPT did wrong

ChatGPT’s rogue version said rising inflation fears would contribute to the stock market’s decline, but recent inflation data shows a continued slowdown in prices.

The main driver behind the recent stock market decline was not inflation, geopolitical tensions or a fall in consumer spending. Instead, it has been a banking crisis that started with Silicon Valley Bank in the US and now appears to be emerging in Europe as confidence in Credit Suisse takes a dive.

Finally, while there is no official definition of how large a stock market sell-off must be to constitute a “crash”, it is generally assumed to happen quickly and involve a drop of more than 10%. The S&P 500’s 6% drop over the past eight days is actually quite orderly considering that the biggest U.S. bank failure since 2008 just happened.

In an effort not to test the AI ​​gods, I call it a wash. The stock market prediction by a rogue version of ChatGPT made sure some things were eerily correct, but not everything. Now, let’s see what OpenAI’s GPT4 can do.