Stock market forecast next week (April 17-21, 2023)

Stock market forecast next week (April 17-21, 2023):The Indian stock market indices ended higher for the third week in a row. Market sentiment remains bullish, winning all four trading sessions of the shortened week on positive global signals, easy inflation data and buying by FIIs. However, the upside was limited due to the weak performance of IT stocks following TCS’s Q4 results and rising oil prices.

In the week ahead, global signals, WPI inflation and Q4 earnings will drive the markets. The other key factors that are likely to influence stock market forecasting in the near future are given below.

Stock market forecast next week (April 17-21, 2023)

Nifty & Bank Nifty weekly forecast

After a series of lower highs on the daily chart since December 1, 2022, the Nifty index has finally broken above its previous high of 17800 levels, a good indication of an improvement in market sentiment and overall trends.

The next target for the Nifty index is near the 18100-18200 levels where the 17500-17550 zone will be the crucial and important support zone. On a weekly basis, the Nifty index could be trading in a range of 17500-18200 levels.

The Bank Nifty index outperformed the Nifty and closed strongly above the previous resistance zone of 42,000 levels. The large heavyweight banking stocks such as ICICI, HDFC Bank, Kotak Bank and Axis Bank are showing a marked improvement in their preference, with further gains expected in the coming days. On a weekly basis, the Bank Nifty index could trade in the range of 41,000-43,500 levels

You can also follow our daily Nifty and Bank Nifty futures, trends, trading strategies and market updates on our website or our Telegram channel – https://t.me/nifty50stocks1

Macroeconomic data

India’s foreign exchange reserves rose $6.31 billion to $584.76 billion for the week ending April 7, RBI data showed on Friday. The figures of the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) for March will be announced on Monday during market hours next week. Traders will be encouraged by the jump in foreign exchange reserves on Monday.

Q4 Revenue

Last week, TCS reported its fourth-quarter earnings and the stock price plummeted after posting weak earnings. Infosys reported its Q4 earnings on Thursday after market hours, markets were closed on Friday. HDFC Bank also announced its fourth quarter results on Saturday. Infosys missed analysts’ expectations and HDFC Bank reported a 20% year-over-year profit increase in its Q4 results.

Brokerage firm Emkay Global expects Infosys’ share price to react “negatively” to Q4 prints on Monday, while traders are also likely to react to HDFC Bank stock. In the coming week, HCL Tech will report Q4 results on Thursday, April 20, while ICICI Bank will publish Q4 results on Saturday, April 22. Traders should remain cautious in the IT sector next week due to weak Q4 results.

Rising Covid cases in India

Covid cases are on the rise again in India. India recorded 10,753 new covid cases in the past 24 hours on Saturday morning, according to the Union health ministry. So far everything is normal, but the number of cases is expected to increase in the coming days.

Traders should closely monitor the government’s response to the covid situation. Any measures taken to contain the spread of the virus could have a direct impact on stock markets.

Global stock market forecast next week

Global equity markets ended the week on a positive note. All major indices in the US, Europe and Asia closed higher this week. Sentiment in US markets was upbeat due to declining inflation data and the expectation that interest rate cuts will begin towards the end of the year.

However, fears of a recession in the US economy and aggressive remarks from the Fed official on Friday put a dent in market sentiment. European markets gained as recession fears eased and China edged higher after reporting solid trade data. You can also read last week’s global stock market analysis here.

In the coming week, the focus of the global market will shift to quarterly figures. The industrial production data from China and Japan, China’s Q1 GDP number, 1-5 year Prime loan rate and inflation rates in Europe and Japan will drive global markets. Listed below are the other macroeconomic data likely to impact the stock market forecast

Global macroeconomic data

Crude oil prices

Crude oil prices closed higher on Friday, recording their fourth consecutive week of gains, the longest winning streak since June 2022. Oil prices continued their upward journey after the International Energy Agency (IEA) said global demand will hit a record high this year due to a recovery in Chinese consumption.

The West Energy Watchdog also warned that sweeping cuts in oil production by OPEC+ members could exacerbate oil supply shortfalls and hurt end users. Although the dollar index rose on Friday and oil became expensive for investors holding other currencies, this limited oil price growth.

On a weekly basis, Brent oil rose 1.5%, while WTI gained 2.4%. Traders should keep a close eye on oil prices next week as rising oil prices could dampen sentiment in the domestic market

FII & DII stream

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were the net buyers in Indian equity markets for the third consecutive week. They bought shares worth Rs 3355.16 crore during the shortened week ending April 13.

The domestic institutional investors (DIIs) became net sellers during the week, selling shares worth Rs 411.42 crore in the cash segment. Traders should keep a close eye on the activity of FIIs and DIIs next week as the buying spree of FIIs could push Nifty above 18K.

Conclusion:

Technically, domestic markets look positive next week. The global signals and quarterly numbers will remain focused and determine the direction of the market next week. Traders should remain cautious next week as markets have already made sharp gains in the previous nine trading sessions, while any dips should be viewed as a buying opportunity. You can also follow our Daily morning report at 7:30 am to know the direction of the market.

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You might also like to read, Nifty and Bank Nifty Forecast for Monday, April 17, 2023

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