Market closes, jobs, the Fed and more to watch this week

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The stock market closes early for Independence Day on Monday and remains closed on Tuesday. Investors are returning from the long weekend to a few busy days of economic releases.

The highlights are the most recent data on the US labor market. On Thursday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the job vacancy and labor turnover survey. Economists agree that there were 9.9 million job vacancies on the last working day of May, slightly less than in April.

Then it’s Jobs Friday. The BLS is expected to report nonfarm payroll gains of 212,500 in June, following a rise of 339,000 in May. Unemployment is expected to remain stable at 3.7%. Average hourly wages are up 0.3% month over month, in line with May’s pace.

Other releases this week will be the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committees mid-June monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. The Institute for Supply Management publishes its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index for June on Monday and the Services equivalent on Thursday.

Monday 7/3

The Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange have reduced regular trading hours, ending at 1pm

The Census Bureau reports construction spending data for May. Consensus estimates are that spending is growing at a monthly rate of 0.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.92 trillion.

The Supply Institute Management publishes its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index for June. Economists predicted a reading of 47, roughly equal to the May data. The index has had seven consecutive readings below 50, indicating that the US is in a manufacturing recession. But continued strength in the services sector has boosted the overall economy.

Tuesday 7/4

Stocks and fixed income securities markets are closed for Independence Day.

The spare bank of Australia announces its monetary policy decision. Traders are pricing in a 25% chance of the RBA raising its key short-term interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 4.35%. The central bank has raised interest rates 10 times since April 2022 for a total increase of four percentage points. With its regional neighbor New Zealand plunged into recession, Australia’s chances of avoiding its second recession since 1991 are 50/50, according to the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, the country’s largest lender.

Wednesday 7/5

The Federal Open The Market Committee publishes the minutes of its mid-June monetary policy meeting.

Thursday 7/6

ADP releases the national employment report for June. Economists see a gain of 250,000 private sector jobs, after an increase of 278,000 in May. The leisure and hospitality sector continues to make gains, while the manufacturing and financial sector laid off workers in May.

The desk of Labor Statistics publishes the job vacancy and labor turnover survey. The consensus call is for 9.9 million vacancies on the last working day of May, slightly less than in April. Despite a drop of almost two million from the peak of 12 million in March 2022, job vacancies remain at historic highs. There are currently 1.65 job openings for every unemployed person, and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has emphasized that he would like to see that ratio approach 1:1.

The ISM releases the Services PMI for June. Expectations are for a reading of 50.8, a tick higher than May’s figure. The index has only had one reading below the expansive 50 level in the past three years.

Friday 7/7

The BLS releases the jobs report for June. The consensus estimate is that the economy will add 212,500 nonfarm payrolls, after rising from 339,000 in May. The unemployment rate remains unchanged at a historically low level of 3.7%. Average hourly wages are expected to increase by 0.3% monthly, consistent with May data. Job growth has been positively surprising almost every month for the past year, sometimes by more than double estimates, as in January.

Write to Nicholas Jasinski at [email protected]