The Covid-19 figures appear to be stuck. Doesn’t bode well for winter, experts say – CBS Baltimore

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(CNN) – Coronavirus numbers don’t look so good this week. New Covid-19 diagnoses have increased in about half of U.S. states over the past week. Hospitalizations are up in 11 states and deaths have increased in 17 states.

Coronavirus cases in the United States have leveled off in recent weeks, retaining about half the growth of the last wave this summer.

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While new cases have declined in some states, they are increasing in others, particularly in cold states in some regions.

Southern states, which played a big role in this summer’s surge, now have some of the lowest case rates. Two months ago, Florida and Texas together accounted for nearly a quarter (22%) of all new cases. Now these two large states only account for 6% of all cases.

Florida has reduced new cases to a tenth of what they were two months ago and Texas to a fifth.

This should sound like good news. But with less dramatic declines in other, less populous states – and slight increases in some others, particularly in the northeastern and mountainous regions – the overall US numbers are generally holding up.

It’s confusing and the numbers can send a mixed message to people. They are not, however, sending a mixed message to epidemiologists, who do not predict a good winter for the United States or for the world.

Too many people go unvaccinated and too many continue to challenge and even fight against advice to wear masks when indoors with other people. This dangerous combination could mean more flare-ups, although they are not as high as in the recent past, and in areas beyond those currently seeing the number of cases increase.

“I don’t know what’s going to happen over the next few weeks. But I have a feeling it’s not going to be pretty, ”Michael Osterholm, who heads the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, told CNN.

“Today is a really sad day,” epidemiologist Ali Mokdad, who has been following the coronavirus pandemic from the start at the University of Washington, told CNN. “The cases are rising. He was coming down. This is a time when the United States has all the tools we need to prevent a wave, all the tools we need to save lives. We have the best vaccines, and we have a lot of them, ”he said.

“And people are not ready to get them.”

False sense of security

Mokdad said states like Florida have a false sense of security.

“Florida has a large population of seniors who have gone for the vaccine. And the young people just got infected. The virus therefore ran out of people to infect, ”he said.

But he said the immunity of both groups was waning.

“There will be a lot of winter travel in Florida,” he said. “The infections will start again,” he predicted. “We are so interconnected.”

Diagnoses and hospitalizations are both on the rise in Michigan, with hospitalizations up 20% last week, state data showed.

“The Detroit subway is becoming a hot spot again,” Dr. Nick Gilpin, director of infection prevention and epidemiology at Beaumont Health, a health system in southeast Michigan, told a conference Thursday. Press.

“I have a feeling that we will be in this world for the next few months because I don’t see much that can change that unless people start to drastically change their behavior. It could be a matter of four or five months, ”added Gilpin.

Like Mokdad, Gilpin accuses the unvaccinated and a refusal to wear masks. It hits hospitals and clinics hard, he said.

“I mean, it’s brutal. No one wants to see these Covid patients so late. But we hide ourselves and try to help people get better, ”Gilpin said.

“That said, there probably isn’t a hospital in the state that doesn’t face staff shortages. It’s difficult, especially since we are considering a fourth wave that could last all winter. This push is shaping up to be more of a marathon than a sprint.

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In Colorado, where cases have increased by 30% over the past week, according to data from Johns Hopkins University, Gov. Jared Polis said the state as a whole is at high risk for transmission or exposure to Covid-19 and signed an executive order saying everyone over 18 was eligible for a booster dose of the vaccine.

“We want to make sure Coloradians have all the tools they need to protect themselves from this deadly virus and to help reduce stress on our hospitals and healthcare workers. Every Coloradan is now eligible to get the recall so they can protect themselves and their families, ”Polis said in a statement.

Mokdad approves. “Science tells us we need three doses to be immune,” he said. “We are losing our credibility as scientists unless you say so – we need three doses to be protected.”

The United States Food and Drug Administration and the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have accepted booster doses for most American adults, and the FDA is considering expanding the authorization of booster doses of the vaccine Pfizer to all adults.

Osterholm thinks stimulating people will help – but says it’s far more important to get more people vaccinated in the first place.

“If we see increases in LA or New York, we might as well end up where we were. At this point, there is no evidence that this is happening, ”he said in his podcast this week.

“But I have to tell you that given the vaccination rates… we could surely see significant increases in these two metropolitan areas where, with the population density being what it is, could really, really increase the number of cases. national short-term, ”he added.

It is estimated that 60 million Americans remain unvaccinated. That’s a lot of people who can help fuel new breakouts, Osterholm said.

“Overall, there is still a lot of human wood to burn for this coronavirus wildfire,” he said.

Even in states, cities and counties with high vaccination rates, enough people remain unvaccinated or undervaccinated to help keep the virus from spreading. And while immunity wanes as quickly as some studies indicate, Osterholm fears more disruptive infections, even among those vaccinated.

What could be ahead this winter

Osterholm is pessimistic for the coming weeks. “This fact, combined with Delta, schools and the upcoming vacation, makes me skeptical that we won’t see new hot spots emerge in this country in the coming weeks and months. So where do I see us going? I think we will continue to see breakouts. They may not be as high as the ones we just had, but they will happen.

And they won’t be limited to current hot spots, Mokdad predicted. The holidays will make sure of that. “People are moving as if there is no Covid-19,” he said. “We’re going to see Americans traveling – Thanksgiving, then throughout New Years. We’re going to see an increase, and that increase is going to be very bad. “

AAA predicts Thanksgiving travel will rebound to near pre-pandemic levels, with 53.4 million Americans expected to travel for the holidays – a 13% increase from last year.

And many states have vaccination levels so low it’s bonfires waiting to be lit, Mokdad said.

“I mean, West Virginia [is] 41.1% fully vaccinated. So 60% of the population, at least, has no immunity to infection, ”he said.

“So what are you expecting? We’re going to have a push. If you look at Montana, 51%. Wyoming, 44.6%. I mean, you could go on and on. There are so many states below 50. Louisiana, 48.1%. Alabama, 45.2%. “

These same states, both Mokdad and Osterholm pointed out, also have populations largely resistant to the use of masks.

“Nobody is listening,” Mokdad said glumly. He said he and his fellow epidemiologists were discussing how they could draw attention to the dire situation.

“Some of us were talking about going on a hunger strike. We are really frustrated. It’s depressing that we know how to protect our people and that we don’t, ”he said.

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