Should we attend a New Year’s Eve party? An expert intervenes

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CN—

At the end of 2020 and 2021, many people welcomed the start of the coming year cowering in the face of the risk of Covid-19. But now New Year’s Eve events and celebrations are back in full force. Many people plan to attend social events, whether crowded festivities with thousands of people or house parties with a few relatives and friends.

These rallies are taking place as the United States is in the midst of a triple threat at the confluence of respiratory syncytial virus or RSV, influenza and Covid-19. All three viral infections spread from person to person, and large gatherings can increase transmission at a time when nationwide hospital capacity is at near record highs: more than 70% of Inpatient beds are in use across the country, according to the US Department of Health and Human Services.

What should you consider when deciding whether or not to attend New Year’s Eve parties? How to assess the risk of specific events? Are there people who might want to take more precautions, and what mitigations can reduce the risk if they do? If you later learn that a participant was sick, when should you test next to make sure you are safe? And what if you develop symptoms after an event?

To walk you through these questions, I spoke with Dr. Leana Wen, CNN medical analyst, emergency physician, public health expert, and professor of health policy and management at George Washington University Milken Institute School of Public Health. She is also the author of Lifelines: A Doctors Journey in the Fight for Public Health.

CNN: What should people consider when deciding whether or not to attend New Year’s Eve parties?

Dr. Leana Wen: People should start by considering three factors. First, what is your risk and the risk to your household of suffering serious consequences from respiratory viruses? If everyone is generally healthy and you’ve already resumed other aspects of pre-pandemic activities, it might be reasonable to do the same for New Year’s get-togethers. But if someone is elderly or severely immunocompromised , you may want to take extra precautions.

Second, how important are these events to you, compared to the importance of avoiding infection? Virtually all face-to-face interactions carry some level of risk. This doesn’t mean that everyone should permanently avoid in-person activities, but if you attend a high-risk event, be aware that you are at risk of contracting a respiratory infection. Whether you go there depends on how you weigh the importance of this event against your desire not to get sick.

Third, is there a specific timing issue that you really don’t want to get sick of as the New Year approaches? For example, someone who has an operation scheduled for the week after New Year’s may wish to be extra careful, so that they don’t get an infection and then have to postpone their operation. Someone else may have an important work event or school exam, and the desire to avoid infection before that occasion might outweigh the desire to participate in New Year’s Eve celebrations. These are all things to consider and will vary according to individual preferences.

CNN: How can people assess the risk of different New Year’s events?

Wen: The risk depends on the type of event and the type of mitigation measures put in place, if any.

The more people, the higher the risk. A small gathering of, say, 10 close friends means you could potentially contract respiratory viruses from any of those 10. Especially if those friends have been cautious enough themselves, there’s little chance that any of those 10 from getting infected when entering the party. Compare that with a large group of 1,000 people. In this case, the chances are much higher that someone at that party is contagious.

An outdoor event will be less risky than an indoor event. Indoor events where everyone is spaced out and there is good ventilation will be safer than those where people are packed close together.

In addition to space and ventilation, another mitigation measure that can make a difference is testing. If the event requires rapid same-day Covid-19 testing, this reduces the risk. And it helps if organizers emphasize that symptomatic people should not attend.

CNN: What are some things people can do to reduce their risk if they go to an event?

Wen: Influenza, RSV and many other respiratory infections are transmitted through droplets. Washing your hands well and often can reduce your risk. Bring hand sanitizer with you in case it is not readily available and use it frequently, especially after shaking hands and touching commonly used surfaces like shared serving utensils.

You can also stand near windows and try to stay away from crowds, especially if people gather in poorly ventilated areas.

Covid-19 is airborne in addition to being transmitted by droplets. Studies have shown that masks reduce the risk of transmission of Covid-19. Some venues may require masks, but even if they don’t, if you are someone who is very concerned about Covid-19, you can wear a high quality N95 or equivalent mask during the event.

CNN: If you learn someone at an event has had Covid-19, when should you test next to make sure you’re safe?

Wen: If you are asymptomatic, you should test at least five days after the event. If you test earlier than that, the test result could be negative and you could still have contracted Covid-19, even if the virus in your body has not replicated enough for the test to detect it yet. To be certain, I test five days later, then again two days later.

CNN: What if you saw other people on New Years Day if you were exposed on New Years Eve, could you infect people the next day?

Wen: The incubation period for Covid-19 is at least two days. Even if you contracted Covid-19 on New Year’s Eve, you wouldn’t have enough virus in your system to infect others the next day. The next day, two days after the exhibition, it is possible.

CNN: What happens if you develop symptoms after an event?

Wen: If you develop symptoms, you should test for Covid-19, then, if you test positive and you’re eligible for Paxlovid, talk with your healthcare provider about taking the antiviral treatment. Immediately notify the event organizer so they can alert others.

Viral symptoms aren’t just due to Covid-19, of course. If you are a particularly vulnerable person, you should call your health care provider, who can test you for the flu and prescribe the antiviral drug Tamiflu. Children and other vulnerable people should also get tested for RSV.

Otherwise, the advice is the same as before the pandemic: refrain from going to public places as long as you are symptomatic. Use standard measures to treat viral syndromes such as fluids, rest, fever medications, and other symptom-based treatments.

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