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Minnesota had all the ingredients for a severe flu season this winter, but Thursday’s weekly status update suggests it is coming off with less damage than expected.
According to the weekly report, only 19 flu-related hospitalizations were reported in the week ending January 28, compared to a peak of nearly 600 per week in mid-November. The 142 confirmed flu-related deaths to date put Minnesota behind the trajectory of some of its worst flu seasons.
The surprising start to flu season this fall has experts worried, as the previous two seasons had been mild and low vaccination rates left Minnesotans with reduced immune protection. Dr Frank Rhame, an Allina Health virologist, said he feared the worst after the surge, but flu season now appears to be early rather than severe.
“It’s not like there’s been a lot of twists and turns” in flu activity, he said. “He did the standard things, it’s just that he did them two months earlier.”
The flu has confounded expectations for the past four years, even before the COVID-19 pandemic. “A” strains of the flu virus normally dominate in Minnesota, but the winter of 2019-2020 mostly featured milder “B” strains. The next two seasons involved very little flu activity and just 61 flu-related deaths combined as people wore masks, practiced social distancing and took other measures to protect against severe levels of COVID-19. .
By comparison, levels of COVID-19 have been low this winter, potentially giving way to the spread of influenza. The 404 hospitalizations for COVID-19 on Tuesday compared to 1,371 on the same date last year, when a rapidly spreading omicron variant of the coronavirus fueled a new wave of pandemic activity, according to the state’s weekly update. .
But health officials have warned that the flu is still capable of a second wave and that COVID-19 has not gone away.
The latest sampling showed substantial increases in coronavirus material in wastewater in parts of the state, according to results through Jan. 29 released by the University of Minnesota. Virus levels reported in central and southwestern Minnesota were at their highest since August.
“It will be important to watch this over the next few weeks to see if a stronger trend emerges,” said Dr. Timothy Schacker, associate dean for research at the University of Minnesota Medical School.
Viral levels in the Twin Cities area have also increased, based on the U’s collection of data from 13 sewage treatment plants in outlying suburbs such as Cambridge and Northfield. However, viral levels have been rising and falling in the metro area all winter long, and the results contradict the decrease reported last week by the St. Paul Metropolitan Wastewater Treatment Station.
Rhame urged people to continue to consider getting vaccinated and receiving the latest recommended COVID-19 booster shots to boost their immunity levels. Pandemic risks remain highest among the elderly, who accounted for 164 of the 180 COVID-19 deaths identified by age so far in Minnesota in 2023.
While nearly 95% of Minnesota seniors have received a COVID-19 vaccine, only 61% are up to date with the latest reminders.
“It breaks your heart,” Rhame said, “the number of deaths that don’t have to happen.”
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