What can traders expect from this Bitcoin gold cross

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The Bitcoin Golden Cross is an event that is always eagerly awaited by analysts, traders and investors. Historically, a golden cross always drives up prices and lifts the market out of bear claws. After the Death Cross on June 23, this Golden Cross has a lot of value. But the truth is, this time it could be disappointing for a variety of reasons.

A disappointing golden cross?

Simply put, a Golden Cross (GC) occurs when 50 EMAs cross over 200 EMAs and a Death Cross (DC) occurs when the reverse occurs. Usually, GC occurs within 300 to 500 days from DC. However, due to existing market conditions and an early CD, the next GC was expected to take place within 60-69 days. And he did. A previous analysis placed it between late July and early September.

Planned GC timeline about to be validated | Source: Rekt Capital

Now, GCs are generally indications of a price increase. Historically, this has been the case almost every time. But this time things are going to be different and the market will either experience a price drop or a sideways correction.

Historical DC and GC performance | Source: Rekt Capital

One of the main reasons for this is the failure of the June DC. Usually a DC results in big drops, but this time the lowest BTC reached was -11.5%. Plus, this DC was one of the shortest to date. At the time of this report it is only 46 days and if the GC comes next week it will only be 53 days. This is shorter than the 57-day DC of March 2020. So one failed DC = one failed GC.

What does the data say?

On-chain data supports these extrapolations because the metrics show a phase of imminent correction. Looking at the Relative Strength Index (RSI), it becomes clear that a trend reversal is coming due to the indicators reaching the overbought zone.

Bitcoin RSI and June 23 DC | Source: TradingView – AMBCrypto

In addition, the network value to transactions ratio on a 30-day SMA was currently at its highest level in 10 years. The last time it peaked was in February 2011. In addition, reserve risk was at a 2-month high, showing that due to high prices, investor confidence is currently low.

Bitcoin NVT Ratio At Highest Level In 10 Years | Source: Glassnode – AMBCrypto

These are all clear indications that this GC is unlikely to result in a significant price increase. At best, expect lateral movement.

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