Bitcoin hashing power estimate rising, transaction fee revenue estimate falling

[ad_1]

Source: AdobeStock / Siam

There has been a significant upward revision to the Bitcoin hashrate (BTC) expected by digital asset technology and services platform Bitooda. At the same time, they lowered their BTC fee income estimates.

The Bitcoin hashrate is now expected to hit 198 EH / s by the end of this year, up from 145 EH / s estimated in July, the company said in its latest report.

It comes as the hashrate that had been lost following China’s mining ban has recovered at a faster rate than industry watchers had assumed.

Following the introduction of this now notorious ban, which resulted in a loss of around 100 EH / s, hashrate recovery exceeded analysts’ expectations, reaching the current level of 131.7 EH / s.

Bitooda acknowledges some risks for its hashrate estimates, where a potential upside risk could be “induced by easing infrastructure constraints, coupled with an increase. [BTC] the price.”

According to BitInfoCharts.com, the 7-day simple moving average hashrate is up from early July lows of 84.53 EH / s. On September 16, it stood at 135.93 EH / s, slightly lower than the 3-month high of nearly 137 EH / s. The highest point it has reached this year – also its all-time high – was 182.95 EH / s seen in May.

Bitcoin hashrate, 7-day moving average. Source: bitinfocharts.com

In its analysis, Bitooda also notes that Bitcoin’s transaction fees (Tx) have been found to be lower than recent forecasts, encouraging its analysts to suspect a shift in trade from Asia to the West, coupled with a reduction in overall volumes. Exchanges.

“Over time, an increased deployment of Layer 2 would also reduce Layer 1 congestion and therefore costs,” according to the analysis. “We are lowering our long-term estimates, with Tx fees not expected to exceed bulk rewards until 2028.”

Layer 1 (L1) is the base protocol (the Bitcoin blockchain), while Layer 2 (L2) is any protocol built on it, like the Lightning Network, which makes BTC transactions faster and cheaper.

Meanwhile, for the time being, the transaction fees earn less than 2% of the daily earnings of miners, while the block reward (currently 6.25 BTC) will be halved again in 2024, reaching 1.56 BTC. in 2028.

Miners’ Income: Total USD value of coinbase block rewards and transaction fees paid to miners

Source: Blockchain.com

Additionally, according to BitInfoCharts.com, median transaction fees are still significantly lower than at the start of this year.

Table of median Bitcoin transaction fees, simple moving average of 7 ie. Source: Bitinfocharts.com

Bitooda also said its analysts continued to expect power infrastructure to be the determining factor in further mining expansion. Based on its latest findings, the median cost of electricity is now estimated at $ 40 per MWh, according to the analysis.

“We are also updating our estimated Bitcoin grid energy cost curve, which we believe has increased with the loss of low-cost Chinese electricity. However, he should step back one [USD] 40 / MWh median currently, at [USD] 30 / MWh over the next two years, ”the company said.

At 14:05 UTC, BTC was trading at $ 47,421 and was unchanged within one day. The price has increased by 2% in a week and almost 7% in a month. It has increased by 333% in one year.

____

Learn more:

– Bitcoin transaction fee estimators: what are they and how do you use them – Bitcoin users could have saved half a billion dollars in fees – Report

– China seeks to cover up crypto miners ahead of winter season – Bitcoin miners, take note – Biden’s plan would reshape America’s power system

– BTC Mining Migration, Challenges and Forecasts for Post-Crackdown Industry – Unapproved Bitcoin Mining Factory Forced to Close Shop

[ad_2]