Did all Bitcoin Bears have $ 58,000 before take off at $ 90,000?

[ad_1]

The next day, Bitcoin (BTC) had reached $ 66,980; I used the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) to determine that a breakout below $ 59,000 would ideally go to $ 53,000 + / $ 2,000 before the cryptocurrency staged its next rally at $ 90,000 +. See here. That breakup happened, but BTC only hit $ 58,000 on October 27 and is now essentially back at the scene of the crime.

Since the market does not need to hit ideal target areas on the downside, especially in bull markets where “surprises on the upside and downside disappoint”, the question is “has BTC- she’s already bottomed out II and is she now ready to rock to $ 90,000 +, or does he have one last trick up his sleeve before seeing that move? Figure 1 shows the two options we have.

Figure 1. Daily Bitcoin charts with detailed EWP account and technical indicators.

A break below last week’s $ 58,128 low is needed to confirm a more complex wave-ii at ideally $ 53 4K.

Figure 1A shows the bullish option for BTC. This means that wave-ii has made the minimum required retracement as there were three waves (green) down from the recent all-time high (ATH), and the corrections are made up of at least three waves. But, the corrections can also become more complex and score on another set of three waves. Or, as I always tell my premium crypto trading members, “after three waves of decline, still expect at least three waves of return”. So far, BTC has made three backup waves, labeled in Figure 1B as (gray) minute a, b, c. So the current rally can still be a countertrend rally / bounce to ideally reach $ 64,495, where wave-c = wave-a (gray dotted arrow). Today the crypto has reached $ 64,284. Close enough?

Therefore, Bitcoin has set itself up for an if / then scenario based on the perfect EWP: come back below $ 58,128 and wave-c (green) -see Figure 1B- is underway as the correction. of wave-ii goes from simple to complex. . The ideal target area would then again be around $ 53 +/- 2K (green rectangle). But, if the cryptocurrency decides to go out and create new ATHs without breaking down first, I have to accept that wave-ii was shallower than expected.

The correction, in this case, made the minimum (the orange rectangle in Figure 1B shows the potential range of the 2nd waves, while the red rectangle shows the ideal range), which is sufficient because the markets do not owe us anything. Therefore, I always “anticipate, monitor and adjust as necessary”.

Bottom line: My forecast of almost two weeks where I anticipated a pullback was correct. However, so far, the retirement has fallen a bit below the ideal target zone of $ 53 +/- 2K. $ 58,000 could have been all she wrote, and BTC may be in the starting gates for wave iii at $ 90,000. If the cryptocurrency does not go below $ 58,128, it will directly set up such a rally. BTC will need to cross the $ 46,000 mark to suggest that something much more bearish is brewing. This option, while possible, is not my preferred path.

[ad_2]