Bitcoin Price Prediction Model That Sees Crypto Doubling In Value By 2022 “Still In The Game”

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A price prediction model that puts bitcoin on track to hit six digits before the start of 2022 is “still in play,” according to its creator.

Dutch analyst pseudonym PlanB first released the forecast in June when the price of BTC was below $ 34,000, and it has remained within a few percent of each monthly target since then.

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The cryptocurrency reached $ 47,000 in late August before dropping to $ 43,000 in late September – the two prices predicted by PlanB.

Bitcoin’s October closing price of $ 61,318 was slightly lower than the model’s $ 63,000 forecast, but there is new hope for the November target of $ 98,000 after BTC hits a new all-time high. above $ 68,000 last week.

Bitcoin’s latest price hike means it has risen more than 300% from the same time period last year, but it has to rise another 50% if it is to meet PlanB’s forecast for November.

PlanB’s popularity has grown alongside the price of bitcoin in 2021, gaining more than a million followers on Twitter after its Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model was found to be “incredibly accurate”.

The S2F model divides the supply (stock) of bitcoin with its production (flow) to estimate its long-term market movements. The inherent scarcity of cryptocurrency – there will never be more than 21 million coins – combined with its decrease in supply will theoretically see its value increase over time.

Its latest prediction success comes from its “worst case scenario” for bitcoin, which puts bitcoin on track to hit $ 135,000 in December.

The simplicity of PlanB’s S2F model means that it is susceptible to being derailed by “black swan events”, such as a leading economy enforcing a bitcoin ban, or major geopolitical news impacting markets. traditional financial markets.

He told The Independent last month that the price of bitcoin could also be supercharged by favorable news, such as the approval of the ETF or another country following El Salvador’s lead in adopting it as the currency. legal.

Other analysts caution investors against using the S2F model to predict short-term price movements.

“The model has been accurate thus far, but I would advise against following a model for such a volatile asset class,” said Mostafa Al-Mashita of digital asset firm GDA Capital.

“Bitcoin can unite the global economy through a single asset class, like no other. It can overtake and surpass the S2F model at any time, [but] we also have kryptonite black swan events that could cripple bitcoin in the near term. “

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