Where will BTC end in November 2021? 5 things to watch in Bitcoin this week

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Bitcoin (BTC) is back at $ 57,000 as a new week begins after a late surge produced a much better weekly close than many expected.

Offsetting last week’s coronavirus-induced selloff and associated price drop, Bitcoin surpassed $ 58,000 overnight before consolidating higher, still up around 5.7% on the day.

The outlook could hold many surprises – coronavirus nerves remain as macro markets hint ahead of the open, and sellers still have an opportunity to profit from leveraged optimists following the latest gains.

With everything to play for and the monthly close expected in less than 48 hours, Cointelegraph takes a look at the numbers to see what could shape Bitcoin’s price performance this week.

Bitcoin bounces back in record time

Just three days after losing $ 6,000 in a single daily candle, BTC price action is already back.

In a classic weekend end, BTC / USD rose to produce a weekly close of $ 57,300 on Bitstamp, avoiding its lowest weekend price in two months.

The gains have since stalled, with $ 57,000 still the center of attention at the time of writing on Monday.

In a new analysis, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital noted that the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $ 52,500 provided support as a “time-tested bull market indicator.”

“Strong BTC reaction from 21 week EMA zone,” he summed up.

1 week BTC / USD candle chart (Bitstamp) with 21 week EMA. Source: TradingView

Despite local highs of $ 58,300, however, Bitcoin has yet to break through definitively, as major resistance at $ 60,000 remains intact.

All previous attempts to break into this sell area since its loss as a support have ended in a firm rejection.

BTC 4h (linear):

Parallel channel pic.twitter.com/pqrEfHQoHr

– Nunya Bizniz (@Pladizow) November 29, 2021

The hike took some by surprise, however, according to the data, with closeouts of nearly $ 300 million in the past 24 hours.

Meanwhile, funding rates, which were neutral on Sunday, are also rising, signaling the return of optimism about a reliable rebound in BTC prices – and the risk that entails.

“All it took was one + 7% daily candle to dissolve all the fears and worries of a new bearish BTC market,” added Rekt Capital.

BTC / USD, he said, “is making good progress” towards the monthly close expected late Tuesday.

Coronavirus and a replay from March 2020

Macro markets expect a turbulent start to the week as the new variant of the coronavirus, omicron, continues to bite into sentiment.

“We really need more answers to determine the impact on growth,” Priya Misra, global head of rate strategy at TD Securities, told Bloomberg on Monday.

“Risky assets measure uncertainty. “

The past week was characterized by high volatility across the board as Bitcoin and altcoins followed stocks, oil and others in a flash sell off.

Asian markets appear poised to continue the trend at Monday’s open, with declines of 1% to 2% expected at the time of writing.

With Bitcoin on the rise, any further jerk in macro structures could still put an end to the new optimism.

The bulls are hoping the scenario will play out the same as in March 2020, when an inter-crypto rout as the coronavirus entered the world stage subsequently sparked a surge that eclipsed previous price levels. .

many seem to be scared of another March 2020 style bitcoin liquidation event, if you hold your own keys and not use leverage this is a negligible concern, if it does happen I would expect this let it be quick and brutal then okay most trying to swap it will get rekt, stay humble and stack up

– ODELL (@ODELL) November 28, 2021

Nonetheless, Bitcoin did not come out unscathed in the past week as some familiar faces have lined up to despise what they claim is by no means a risk escape.

“Being less risky doesn’t make Bitcoin safe,” Gold Bug Peter Schiff said on Friday, predicting that Bitcoin would eventually become “as risky as any altcoin”.

1 hour BTC / USD candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView’s $ 50,000 echoes the $ 30,000 floor

Those worried about a retracement from current levels don’t need to look too far into the BTC price chart.

According to the latest order book data from the Material Scientist analytics resource, a giant buying wall is now in place and is expected to keep the market above $ 50,000.

The stakes can be high, as some have said over the weekend that failure to maintain that level would cause them to rethink their approach to Bitcoin, but given the extent of support, that now seems less likely.

“I don’t know why you are all so scared,” Material Scientist summed up on Twitter Sunday.

“This is the highest bid since the low of 30,000.” Heat map of BTC / USD order book. Source: Materials Scientist / Twitter

So if $ 50,000 is the new $ 30,000, that would classify the current retracement from all-time highs as modest relative to others – notably the almost 50% drop in May.

Continuing, Material Scientist, meanwhile, noted something unusual – the same entity responsible for support also placed resistance at $ 70,000.

“Basically, 1 actor has the whole market at their fingertips,” he explained.

“They knew 1 month in advance how it was all going to play out.”

$ 70,000 is thus the major point of interest for bulls keen to see a continuation of the bull run before the end of the fourth quarter of 2021.

D-day arrives for three Bitcoin price correlations

The next few weeks will be “very revealing” for Bitcoin as they create or destroy important correlations.

That was the conclusion of popular Twitter analyst TechDev over the weekend as Bitcoin continued to replicate gold’s journey from the 1970s.

The curious, if not bizarre, similarities between BTC / USD in 2020-2021 and XAU / USD 50 years ago have endured despite a few volatility anomalies in Bitcoin price action.

If the trend continues, Bitcoin faces a dramatic surge with a price tag of up to $ 280,000. The deadline: mid-February 2022.

“The 1970s gold fractal is now precisely aligned and anchored to both local highs and lows,” commented an update on the events.

“Only the month of December / January is affected, the model running until February 1”. BTC / USD chart against 1970s gold. Source: TechDev / Twitter

An accompanying breakdown of each projected phase of Bitcoin’s metamorphosis since September presents this month as falling outside of its intended trajectory. December is expected to see between $ 70,000 and $ 110,000 for BTC / USD.

Beyond gold, it’s the Fibonacci sequences that dictate two other correlations that face their moment of truth in the weeks to come.

These both imply Bitcoin’s relationship to its 2017 performance and, so far, both remain valid. If one wins over the other, the pace and height of the price gains will change accordingly.

A peak of around $ 150,000 could reach as early as mid-December, or else $ 225,000 could appear in mid-February.

“From mid-December to the end of January with a high of around 230K, remains my base scenario,” TechDev wrote.

“Obviously, the first side of this window seems less likely. I don’t care if it’s fair. I have seen compelling work suggesting a peak from mid-December to mid-March, with goals of 120K-260K.

Responding to praise from Global Macro Investor founder Raoul Pal, he added that the coming weeks would be “very revealing” for the three correlations.

Where will Bitcoin end up “Moonvember?”

This was once the multi-million dollar question on everyone’s lips – but now acceptance is slowly spreading that this bull market may take longer than expected to mature.

Related: Top 5 Cryptocurrencies To Watch This Week: BTC, BNB, LUNA, MANA, SAND

Despite this, optimism for the short term remains.

In a Twitter survey conducted by the @Bitcoin account, which ended on Monday, the majority of nearly 50,000 respondents predicted that BTC / USD would end November above $ 60,000.

35% opted for the highest possible price during the survey, while 25.7% predict a November closing price of between $ 55,000 and $ 60,000.

Twitter @Bitcoin poll results. Source: Bitcoin / Twitter

Without zooming out, it’s easy to forget how far Bitcoin has come in the past 12 months. As Cointelegraph noted, last Thanksgiving – which also saw a brief sell-off – BTC / USD was trading at just under $ 16,500.

As quantitative analyst Benjamin Cowen summed it up this weekend: “Don’t miss the forest for the trees.

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