This is why $ 69,000 was not the peak of this Bitcoin cycle, explains PlanB

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The price of Bitcoin has lost a lot of ground over the past few weeks. It is down $ 20,000 since the most recent high of $ 69,000 in November. This has sparked much speculation in the cryptocurrency community as to whether the tide has turned again and the bears have taken full control.

PlanB, however, believes it isn’t and maintains that $ 69,000 was not the peak of that halving cycle.

$ 69,000 was not the best: PlanB

November is historically one of the best months for BTC, and the 2021 edition didn’t disappoint at first. Assets started the month at around $ 60,000 and less than two weeks later broke their previous all-time high and hit $ 69,000 to set a new high. This means that bitcoin has risen 140% since the start of the year.

This is where the situation started to change quickly, and BTC found itself below $ 60,000 by the end of the month. The landscape worsened further last week when the main cryptocurrency fell from $ 16,000 in hours to $ 42,000. Right now, it’s around $ 49,000, which means it’s about 30% lower than ATH.

Predictably, such a substantial retracement in less than a month empowered critics who began to point to the $ 69,000 line as the top of the cycle and predicted an impending bear market.

However, PlanB does not think so. The popular anonymous analyst, perhaps best known as the creator of the stock-to-flow model, recently claimed that a typical bear market means an 80% correction. In other words, that would put the price of BTC at $ 14,000, which is lower than the 2017 ATH of $ 20,000 and, more importantly, lower than the weekly moving average of 200.

As the chart below shows, bitcoin has never fallen below 200WMA, and PlanB believes that “will never happen”.

I don’t think $ 69,000 was the peak for this halving cycle. If $ 69,000 was the top then a typical -80% bear market would pull the bottom down to $ 14,000 .. below the 2017 ATH ($ 20,000) and below 200 WMA ($ 18K). No, that never happened and IMO will never happen. pic.twitter.com/HYo8Pb1E3F

– PlanB (@ 100trillionUSD) December 10, 2021

What about the growing adoption of Bitcoin?

In 2017 and especially in 2018, BTC indeed entered a one-year bear market in which its price fell by around 80%. However, there are very important differences between now and then, especially in terms of adoption.

No giant company, such as Tesla, Square (Block), and MicroStrategy, had invested billions of dollars in assets and kept them on their balance sheet. There was no commodity traded, whether spot or futures, anywhere.

There were very few institutions that had dipped their toes, while their numbers are increasing frequently now. There wasn’t a country that had legalized BTC. There was no bank that recognized the cryptocurrency or wanted to do anything with it, let alone deposit their own BTC ETFs.

Separately, the 2017 rally was primarily driven by retail investors who didn’t want to miss out on the quick profits from the new (to them) trendy thing called bitcoin. Today, however, retail seems far behind, while the aforementioned institutions, large corporations or even banks seem to be the main drivers.

Finally, bitcoin is increasingly adopted as a payment method by countless merchants. While it’s still unclear how many people actually prefer to spend their coins over HODLs, the growing adoption is quite undeniable.

All of the above gives more credit to PlanB’s claim that it will be harder for bears to lower the price by 80% from the recent all-time high.

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