$BTC: Investment Strategist Lyn Alden Is Bearish on Bitcoin in 2022

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Highly respected equity research analyst and investment strategist Lyn Aldensaid in a recent interview that she expects a bumpy year ahead for Bitcoin, with the possibility of a capitulation event.

In a recent interview with Stansberry Research, Alden said that she is not particularly bullish on Bitcoin in 2022. Alden is using the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) an index of the prevailing direction of economic trends in the manufacturing and service sectors to figure out the price trend for bitcoin.

As reported by The Daily Hodl, Alden said:

Bitcoins major bull runs historically theres only a sample size of about four of them: 2011, 2013, 2017 and 2020. Those occurred during rising PMI environments, so economic acceleration. So generally the type of period now has historically not been great for Bitcoins price action

Right now, Bitcoins classified due to its volatility as a risk asset by most pools of capital, so Im not particularly bullish for the calendar year 2022.

According to Moodys Analytics, the US PMI is currently around 57.6, which is a drop of nearly 10% from March 2021. Alden believes that a falling PMI combined with the Feds current hawkish mood could lead to a capitulation event for Bitcoin:

If you get some sort of market turbulence, you could have a capitulation similar to March 2020 or similar to the fourth quarter of 2018 where the Fed was still trying to tighten into a declining PMI environment.

If you get a capitulation like that, I would consider that a buying opportunity. I dont know if were going to get that or not. We certainly could see a break below $30,000 in that kind of capitulation type of environment.

However, Alden remains long-term bullish on Bitcoin:

Looking at multiple years, say a three to five-year time period, Im still structurally bullish on Bitcoin when I look around the ecosystem, I look around whats happening on the Lightning Network. Every cycle, the infrastructure gets built to absorb new types of capital.

Disclaimer

The views and opinions expressed by the author, or any people mentioned in this article, are for informational purposes only, and they do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice. Investing in gold trading cryptoassets comes with a risk of financial loss.

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