VanEck’s Bitcoin prediction is between $10,000 and $12,000 by Q1 2023

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VanEck is one of a handful of companies that continue to fight for approval for a Bitcoin Spot ETF. The US investment management firm received a resounding denial from the US Securities and Exchange Commission in November 2021 after a three-year battle.

Just six months later, on June 24 of this year, VanEck again filed for approval for a physical-backed Bitcoin ETF. The SEC decision is currently pending.

Despite this support, the investment firm made a bearish prediction for BTC through the first quarter of 2023. Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, shared this assessment in a recent media presentation.

BTC price could drop to $10,000

“Looking ahead, Bitcoin could test $10,000-12,000 as Bitcoin miner bankruptcies increase due to falling Bitcoin value and rising electricity costs,” VanEck predicts.

The investment firm believes that many miners will be forced to restructure or merge in order to find capital during tough times. As Siegel explained, the mining industry is under tremendous stress.

We have an index that tracks publicly traded companies in this sector; the median market cap is now below $200 million, and each of these companies is burning through cash, trading well below book value.

In recent months, BTC has been trading as a risky asset, Siegel said. What surprises the company, however, is its sensitivity to higher interest rates.

VanEck sees a reason for this in policy responses to inflation in developed countries, which have capped energy prices and extended sanctions against Russia. This has been a tough proposition for Bitcoin mining, explained Sigel.

Still, VanEck is optimistic that the price of BTC could rebound to $30,000 in the second half of 2023 as inflation declines. Looking further ahead, the investment firm points to the halving in 2024, an event that traditionally boosts the value of BTC.

Bitcoin miners’ capitulation is in full swing

As reported by NewsBTC, the second Bitcoin miner capitulation in a cycle already began two weeks ago. Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments reported on Nov. 28 that hash tapes confirmed the start of the sellout.

Glassnode’s latest data on “Bitcoin Miner Net Position Change” shows that miners have been selling aggressively over the past two weeks, to an extent that was only historically higher in early 2021.

Bitcoin miner net position change (7d moving average). Source: Twitter

Historically, the miner capitulation has lasted an average of 48 days, so an end to the selling pressure could be foreseeable by mid-January 2023. However, this is not in line with VanEck’s Bitcoin prediction, which predicts a longer bear market.

Despite the fact that miners clearly dumped their BTC holdings last week, what’s interesting about this right now is that the price of BTC is trending higher.

BTC price, 4 hour chart. Source: Trading View

As of press time, BTC is trading at $17,882, with today’s FOMC meeting starting at 2:30 p.m. ET most likely having a significant impact on price action in the coming weeks.

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