Bitcoin is still missing that on-chain signal for the BTC bull market David Puell

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According to analyst David Puell, Bitcoin (BTC) only needs one more key on-chain signal for a classic bull market to begin.

In a December 17 tweet, the creator of Puell Multiple argued that the stage was almost set for the end of the BTC price bear market.

Puell: Bitcoin network activity “disappointing”

Despite numerous calls for new BTC/USD lows of $12,000 or lower this cycle, not everyone is totally bearish on Bitcoin’s outlook.

For Puell, two essential on-chain phenomena necessary for BTC price recovery are already in evidence.

Long-term (LTH) holders are resisting the urge to sell despite Bitcoin falling more than 70% from its last all-time high.

At the same time, short-term speculators are feeling a sharp pain from the recent price action. As Cointelegraph reported, these tourists have probably mostly left the market already.

All that’s missing, according to Puell, is an increase in network activity from all participants.

On-chain, three factors are needed for a bull: 1. Long-term investor holding behavior. 2. Painful losses for short-term speculators. 3. Network activity at all levels, he summarized.

Personally, seeing 1 and 2.3 is always disappointing.

He added that favorable macroeconomic conditions would facilitate the recovery, along with crypto becoming more resistant to contagion in the form of exogenous and endogenous swans.

BTC/USD was trading at around $16,700 at the time of writing, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.

BTC/USD 1 hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewA Bitcoin Halving Cycle Like Any Other?

This outlook is consistent with others calling for calm on the current BTC price performance.

Related:Bitcoin Targets $16.7K Amid Fear BNB Could ‘Drag Entire Crypto Market Down’

Among them is the popular Dilution-proof analysis account, which that day drew attention to the fact that BTC/USD is simply copying past bear market behavior.

The evidence came in the form of Bitcoins MVRV-z score an expression of realized cap market capitalization in standard deviations. Dilution resistant originally called the metric “Market Value to True Value Temperature (MVRVT)”.

Currently the attached charts have shown signs of a classic bear market formation, dilution proof indicating that Bitcoin is just doing what it is doing on this post halving date literally every cycle.

BitcoinMarket-Value-to-Realized-Value Temperature (MVVRT) chart. Source: Resistant to Dilution/Twitter

Cointelegraph previously included MVRV-z in a list of “striking similarities” between 2022 and past price cycles.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed herein are the sole authors and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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