7 days of Crypto-Christmas underway?

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Bitcoin price fell below $17,000 as the bears caused a 10% decline. BTC may have nearly an 80% chance of closing December with positive returns. A breach above $17,145 is needed to target higher bullish targets.

Bitcoin price is showing bearish technicals, but optimism for the year-end Santa Claus rally persists. Nearly 100 years of stock market data suggests that risky assets have a strong chance of performing well.

Bitcoin Price Approaches Christmas

Bitcoin price is struggling after seeing a 10% selloff last week. On December 14, the peer-to-peer digital currency showed bullish signals. The bulls had rallied back to the $18,000 level and the moving averages provided a cushion during periods of market turbulence.

Within 24 hours, what at first appeared to be just another for-profit consolidation quickly turned into a selling frenzy. Bitcoin crossed the 8-day and 21-day exponential moving averages and continued to advance south into the mid $16,000 area.

Bitcoin price is currently selling at auction at $16,933, a 4% increase from Monday morning’s low of $16,256. While the countertrend spike is a positive move, in the grand scheme, BTC price could be gearing up for further selling in the coming days. The recently crossed moving averages confirm this bias as they are about to collide as BTC price bids lower.

A classic moving average cross will likely prompt the bears to strengthen their positions. If the market is truly bearish, a break of Monday’s low at $16,256 could induce a decline to challenge the yearly low at 15,476 for a 7% drop. If a double bottom does not form near the yearly low, then a BTC of $14,000 will be imminent.

Bearish technicals can be difficult for traders to accept as many in the space are anticipating a Santa rally. In recent days, Schroders, a global asset and wealth management firm, argued that risky assets have nearly an 80% chance of closing December with positive returns.

The wealth management firm has collected data on US large-cap stocks since 1926 and found December to be the best-performing month. According to Schroeders, large-cap stocks have a 77.9% chance of closing December on a positive net result. The company calculates these metrics by dividing all percentage gains by percentage losses during a month. Investors should remember that Bitcoin has recorded over 90% correlation with the stock market this year. One could say that the peer-to-peer digital currency will continue to reflect stock price fluctuations until the end of the year.

Bitcoin price is currently down 2% from the December opening price of $17,167. It should be noted that Schroders identified positive returns with a low of 1.5% above the previous month. Thus, the price of Bitcoin is expected to rise 3.5% and hold the price trend near $17,550 by January 1 to align with Schroder’s 100-year stock market data. The first signs of a Santa Claus rally would be a bullish hurdle and a reversal of the colliding moving averages towards support. The indicators are currently positioned near the monthly open at $17,150.

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BTC/USDT 8 hour chart

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