Bitcoin Bubble Researcher Sees Short-Term Price Stability

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Early cryptocurrency investor Nikki Beesetti said that going forward, she plans to cash out her crypto assets early to “reap the benefits and the rewards.”

Bitcoin’s consistency has been its unpredictability. From all-time highs to multi-year lows, the cryptocurrency’s elusive movement has been frustrating and difficult to predict.

“When we analyze the most recent data, we find that bitcoin prices are likely to remain fairly flat for the time being,” says Marian Gidea, director of the Mathematical Sciences graduate program at the Katz School of Science & Health. Yeshiva University. His team is developing a five-dimensional model to better understand bubbles and bursts in bitcoin.

Crypto expert Elvira Sojli has a similar take on Bitcoin’s short-term outlook. “Bitcoin will be on a downtrend, although it will be a slow move,” she told FOX Business. Sojli is an Associate Professor of Finance and Scientia Fellow Alumni at the School of Banking and Finance at the University of New South Wales.

FTX bankruptcy shattered trust

FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried leaves the District Court building in Nassau, Bahamas, December 19, 2022. (Reuters/Marco Bello / Reuters Photos)

Sojli says the FTX bankruptcy has shattered investor confidence and cemented many investors’ views on potential conflicts of interest in a space where exchanges frequently issue their own tokens and are opaque about their intentions. The collapse also exposed inadequacies in the system such as the lack of regulation.

“BTC is still several times above its value of five years ago, with little increase in usage or a better business case,” she says. “I don’t think investors have stopped selling as there has been a strong sell-off in crypto assets, but sometimes market participants stop and take stock of the environment and reevaluate their decisions.”

Since FTX declared bankruptcy on Nov. 11, bitcoin has remained somewhat stable, closing above $16,000 on all but one day.

Second crypto summer or winter?

A person walks through a snowy park in Montreal, Dec. 20, 2022. (Graham Hughes/The Canadian Press via AP/AP Images)

Is this current stability a second summer before the next crypto winter or the start of something new?

Gidea’s model focuses on bubbles. He can only peer a few days into the future, at most.

“Especially for bitcoin, we can only see with our method signatures that are very close to the actual crash. It could take days or hours, more likely hours than days,” he said. at FOX Business.

However, he notes that the end of the 2018 crash was followed by a period of relative stability, leading some observers to conclude that bitcoin had finally matured and would become a fiat, or government-recognized, currency. Instead, bitcoin defied predictions, reaching all-time highs. The coin reached $68,789.63 before dropping to a multi-year low of $15,599.05 on November 21.

Tech stocks and interest rates

BIG TECH HOLDS INTO RECESSION WITH A LOT OF HIRING GEL, LAYOFF

Sojli notes that many factors are affecting bitcoin’s price, including interest rate hikes, recalibration with stocks and alternative assets, and reliability and trust issues related to the crypto environment.

Many observers believe that bitcoin rises when tech stocks rise and falls when interest rates rise. Gidea warns that it’s hard to draw firm conclusions given bitcoin’s fairly short history. The coin was created in 2009 by Satoshi Nakamoto, an alleged pseudonym for a person or people behind the blockchain-powered currency.

“It’s a new phenomenon. We’re interested in studying it and observing it,” Gidea told FOX Business.

black swans

A black swan swims in a lake inside Retiro Park in Madrid, Spain, August 9, 2019. (Reuters/Sergio Perez/Reuters Photos)

ACCOUNTING RED FLAGS ARE COMMON AMONG PUBLIC CRYPTO COMPANIES

Gidea’s model cannot see the world outside the economy.

“Hype, hype, criminal activity and fraud have all contributed to many wild bitcoin price rises and falls, such as the latest crashes in May, June and November of this year,” Gidea said.

Sojli expects bitcoin to continue to experience price corrections until there are regulatory improvements and a proven business case for the cryptocurrency need.

“We have seen very negative consequences of the lack of regulation,” adds Gidea.

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Bitcoin expert Layah Heilpern joined ‘Kennedy’ to discuss the strength of the cryptocurrency following the collapse of FTX.

According to CoinGecko, an average of 947 cryptocurrencies listed on its site fail each year, with a massive crash in 2021.

“The last bull run that started in November 2020 saw a peak in listed cryptocurrencies, with over 8,000 cryptocurrencies listed in 2021. To date, nearly 40% have been deactivated and removed from CoinGecko,” said the world’s largest cryptocurrency data independent. aggregator.

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