BTC Price Gives Up Santa Claus Rally as Bitcoin Volatility Hits All-Time High

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Bitcoin (BTC) failed to hold a Santa Claus rally for Christmas 2023, with December 25 providing even more sideways BTC price action.

BTC/USD 1 hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewBitcoin Volatility Index Hits All-Time Lows

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD clinging to a tight trading range around $16,800.

The pair had stubbornly refused to offer any form of volatility for much of the week, with the lack of a macro trigger adding to the lackluster performance.

Bitcoin’s volatility is at an all-time low, noted William Clemente, founder of crypto research firm Reflexivity, alongside a chart of Bitcoin’s historic volatility index.

Bitcoin Historical Volatility Index 1 week candle chart. Source: Trading View

He added that the total crypto market cap has retraced its entire gains from its 2017 highs and is now testing those highs for support.

1 month candle chart of crypto market capitalization. Source: Trading View

Meanwhile, trader and analyst Phoenix observed similarities to Christmas 2018, just after Bitcoin’s last bear market during its previous halving cycle.

The duration between its previous all-time high and its Christmas low a year later, it showed, was broadly similar at 117 bars and 137 candles for 2018 and 2022, respectively, on the 3-day chart.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Phoenix/ TwitterThe worst to come in the first quarter?

Looking ahead, another popular analytics account, Bagsy, has announced similarly uninspiring news for hodlers in 2023.

Related: Christmas Dinner Table: What to Tell Your Family About What Happened in Crypto This Year

Next year, he predicted, BTC/USD would not break above $25,000, leaving the real recovery to its halving year, 2024.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Bagsy/Twitter

Even less optimistic was analyst Toni Ghinea, who on Christmas Eve doubled down on his theory that the next quarter would produce the next bear market low.

This, however, left room for a final sprint towards $19,000 in the final week of the year.

“Last bull trap at 17.5-19k in December-January. Final crash at 11-14k in Q1 2023,” he predicted.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Toni Ghinea/Twitter

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed herein are the sole authors and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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