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A popular crypto analyst thinks Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader altcoin markets could start bouncing back next year.
In a new analysis, pseudonymous trader TechDev claims that the crypto correction actually started in the second quarter of 2021, rather than the fourth quarter of that year after Bitcoin hit its all-time high.
“We start with the market capitalization of the altcoin, where I see the market divided into a cyclical set of regions, Correction > Accumulation > Margin. The table below should indicate why I think we were accumulating, and this markup is expected next.
This also serves as further evidence of the correction from the second quarter of 2021, breaking the local RSI uptrend just like the previous correction. »
Source: TechDev
RSI stands for Relative Strength Index, a metric analyzing the 14-period candle swing of crypto assets.
TechDev thinks the broader market structure mimics late 2016/early 2017.
“It just takes 1.5 to 2 times longer to grow, like the rest of the structure so far.”
The analyst claims that Bitcoin has tended to follow the “cycle” of global liquidity. TechDev thinks this cycle is represented by plotting the yield of China 10-year bonds (CN10Y) against the US dollar index (DXY).
“Note the clear cycle in this chart which has a peak-to-peak moment of around 3.4 years that was imprinted long before Bitcoin existed.
Each local top in CN10Y/DXY marked or led a major impulse top in Bitcoin, and each local reversal up marked or led the start of a major Bitcoin impulse.
Source: TechDev
The analyst says the chart’s local highs have been “decreasing steadily along a trendline” since 2014.
“His next hit could anticipate the next Bitcoin/crypto peak. The cyclical timeline over the past 20 years suggests this could be around the late 2023-mid 2024 period.”
Read the full TechDev newsletter here.
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