Bitcoin Whales vs Fish: Understanding the Current Disparity

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The past 34 days have been relatively quiet for Bitcoin. Since December 1, the largest digital asset has been strictly scrolling between $17,360 and $16,250. A minor break above $17,360 was seen on December 13th. However, a quick correction followed on the 15th. Such price action would usually leave investors guessing, but according to the data there is contradictory behavior as of press time.

Source: Trading ViewSmall Bitcoin addresses are accumulating aggressively?

According to Santiment Analytics, BTC addresses holding between 0.1 BTC and 100 BTC are currently on an aggressive accumulation cycle. Over the past 6 months, these addresses have increased their overall BTC holdings by 9%. However, the interesting derivative of this particular behavior is its prevalence since 2017. These addresses started their holding frenzy during the bull market of 2017.

A sell-off period took place during the winter cycle, but most of these addresses took center stage. In terms of consistency, they have only added more BTC over time, which leaves a positive attribute regardless of the current bearish test. However, the whales begin to change the narrative.

Do whales play the reverse game? Source: commercial view

From a macro perspective, Bitcoin whales or addresses holding more than 1000 BTC led the bull run in 2020/2021. However, after peaking in strength, the whales began to register a decline in numbers. As shown in the chart, the bands of UTXO count values ​​are strictly down. For a brief period in March 2022, whale numbers dominated the debates, but since then the whales have been under tremendous stress.

There are endless reasons for the current enigma. However, a concrete bull market phase is directly correlated with deep-pocketed investors pushing its valuation. The initial push hinges on Bitcoin Whales before the fish flood in to extend the rally.

But is it so simple?

Yes, but every bull market since 2017 has been slightly different from the last. The idea of ​​Bitcoin distribution and institutional involvement is radically different from cycle to cycle. The overall macroeconomic structure is extremely disruptive at press time, putting further pressure on the asset class.

Finally, controversies and fraudulent behavior from other assets have not been helpful. As always, Bitcoin’s next bull run will be determined by a different set of conditions, and monitoring fundamentals remains very important.

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