Bitcoin gained 300% the year before the last halving 2023 is it different?

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Bitcoin (BTC) faces a candle low in 2023, but BTC price action is still more than capable of surprising the market.

In a tweet from January 11, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital predicted that BTC/USD could see a decent rise this year.

The chart teases serious upside potential for Bitcoin

Analyzing Bitcoin’s four-year market cycles around block subsidy halving events, Rekt Capital drew attention to 2023 as the deadline for its next bottom candle.

With the next halving expected in 2024, the next twelve months should see a price bottom, followed by a rally as the event nears.

2024 thus forms the fourth candle of the current Bitcoin cycle, and 2023 the third.

Candle 3 is a bottom candle in BTC’s four-year cycle. But it can still generate a decent upside, commented Rekt Capital.

The possibility for Bitcoin to surprise traders is clearly visible in the four-year cycle chart.

Candle 3 in 2015 saw a move of +234%. Candle 3 in 2019 saw a +316% rally, he continued.

The 3 candle in 2023 could see a bigger upside than most think. BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Rekt Capital/Twitter

Some other on-chain observations have led market participants to similarly optimistic conclusions.

Among them, the unrealized loss ratio held by BTC hodlers continues to go through a capitulation phase, according to a dedicated indicator monitoring the status quo.

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These are the most profitable times to accumulate Bitcoin. The net unrealized profit/loss is still in deep capitulation. Trading and analytics account Game of Trades wrote on Twitter that day.

Annotated chart of Bitcoin’s unrealized net profit/loss ratio. Source: Games of Trades/Twitter2023 Macro sentiment echoes GFC, analyst warns

Given the current macroeconomic environment, however, rising from the ashes may require a lot of luck when it comes to cryptoasset price suppression.

Related:BTC Price 3-Week Highs Welcome US CPI 5 Things To Know About Bitcoin This Week

As the US Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates as inflation wanes, concerns are now focused on the long-term policy implications.

According to analysts including Reventure Consulting founder and CEO Nick Gerli, what could hurt sentiment next is not inflation, but deflation.

Commenting on a chart of US savings trends, Gerli warned this week that conditions were ripe for a repeat of the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) in terms of a recession.

The savings rate has just collapsed to 2.2%, the lowest level on record, he revealed.

Means Americans are running out of money. The last time it was this low was in 2006-07. Just before GFC. Major recession warning. Expect a sharp decline in consumer spending in 2023. Annotated chart of the US personal savings rate. Source: Nick Gerli/Twitter

January 12 will see the first release of 2023 US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, and bets are already on on Bitcoin’s reaction.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed herein are the sole authors and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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