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Bitcoin, BTC/USD – Technical Outlook: Bitcoin seems to be gaining ground in recent days. The case for broader base building in cryptocurrencies cannot be ruled out. What is the outlook for BTC/USD and key levels to watch?
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BITCOIN SHORT-TERM TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL
After lackluster trading over the past few weeks, Bitcoin appears to be gaining ground. However, it would be too early to conclude that the tide has changed for cryptocurrencies.
BTC/USD has been trading in a tight range since mid-December, holding around crucial support at the December 7th low of 16690, highlighted in the previous update. Holding above support keeps alive the vision for broader base building in cryptocurrencies, i.e. Scenario 1 outlined in mid-November. That said, holding above a support zone would not necessarily imply an uptrend. This is because BTC/USD has seen similar bursts of strength in recent months that have not been sustained.
BTC/USD daily chart
Chart created using TradingView
In particular, the 89-day moving average has been a significant barrier since mid-2022, coinciding with another high at the mid-December high of 18370. Until the barrier is breached, the lower path resistance remains sideways down for BTC/USD. A decisive break above could initially open the way towards the 200-day moving average, potentially towards the November 5 high at 21470.
BTC/USD weekly chart
Chart created using TradingView
On the downside, 16200-16700 continues to be a strong cushion. Any break below would confirm that the upward pressure has faded, increasing the chances that a wide range of 15,500-18,500 develops in the meantime. Additionally, a decisive break below the November low of 15480 could open the way to the 2019 high of 13895.
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— Written by Manish Jaradi, Strategist for DailyFX.com
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