Bitcoin May Break Above $30,000 Before Setting New Low Bear Market Predictions

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Bitcoin (BTC) could gain another 50% before seeing a selloff to complete its bear market, according to new research.

In the latest edition of its regular markets newsletter, The Crypto Circular, trading firm QCP Capital issued a grim warning to those who think the crypto winter is over.

Research warns of ‘wave 5 final sale’

Bitcoin has surprised by holding new support levels abruptly recovered during its week-long bull run, hitting $21,650 so far.

Despite widespread suspicion over the choreographed move, BTC/USD nonetheless recovered major trendlines and psychological prices.

For QCP, there is still plenty of fuel to send the pair higher, but that still doesn’t mean the entire bear market is over and dusted off.

Updating his long-term Elliott Wave price analysis, he argued that the current rise constitutes wave 4 for Bitcoin essentially a relief move from the bear market.

Make no mistake, what we’re seeing in risky markets right now is typical of Wave 4s, he writes.

We remain of the view that this rebound from the November 2022 lows is just a wave 4 correction and we have one final wave 5 sell to make.

Such a final surrender would be no joke; Wave 5, according to a previous chart from December, would mean Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) potentially falling below their 2022 lows.

ETH/USD annotated chart (screenshot). Source: QCP Capital

The extension we currently see so far in 2023 falls within wave 4 parameters, although it has broken some short-term technical levels to the top, increasing bullish momentum, the newsletter continues.

Elliott Wave theory indicates that the 20%, 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracement levels are of particular importance in wave 4. Given that Bitcoin has already corrected nearly 20% of recent lows Macro, two remaining price targets are now in play: $27,100 and $31,850.

Technically, until these levels are broken, wave 4 is still in play and a final wave 5 for these dip-breaking markets should not be ruled out, QCP said.

Undoubtedly, the pain trade is lower right now. WEF Supports Fragile BTC Price Action

As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin traded its “up only” trading behavior for much-needed consolidation in recent days.

Related:Bitcoin sees new 4-month high as US PPI, retail data shows big misses

This was helped by panic centered on the US takedown of crypto exchange Bitzlato, this coming amid fresh regulatory concerns over Bitcoin from participants at the World Economic Forum, currently underway in Davos, in Swiss.

BTC/USD was trading at around $20,800 at the time of writing on January 19, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.

BTC/USD 1 hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: Trading View

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed herein are the sole authors and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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