Prominent Crypto Analyst Bets Against Srinivasan’s Million Dollar Bitcoin Prediction, Here’s Why

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Arman Shirinyan

Adam Cochran thinks Srinivasan’s prediction isn’t accurate

Prominent crypto analyst Adam Cochran recently disagreed with Balaji Srinivasan’s bold prediction that Bitcoin will hit a staggering $1 million within 90 days. Cochran’s skepticism is rooted in historical data and the behavior of alternative assets in times of crisis.

Cochran points out that the Bitcoin rally from 2020 to 2022 saw a 547% increase, while the 2017 rally, which occurred at much lower prices, resulted in only a 1,105% gain. In light of these numbers, Srinivasan’s prediction of a significant jump to $1 million in such a short time seems far-fetched.

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The bet here is that within 90 days Bitcoin will hit a price of US$1 million.

That’s about a 3,600% gain in the next 90 days.

To put that into perspective, the 2020 to 2022 rally was only 547% and the 2017 rally to much lower prices was only a 1105% gain. pic.twitter.com/7OZZHXNgYX

— Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth) (@adamscochran) March 18, 2023

Cochran also points out that alternative wealth assets, such as cryptocurrencies and precious metals, generally perform well during economic risks rather than systemic risks. When the economy is struggling or cash flow is constrained, alternative assets can be a viable option. However, when the whole system is in danger of collapsing, the value of these assets becomes irrelevant.

The analyst draws on the example of the stock market crash of February 20, 2020, when the world was grappling with the onset of the pandemic. During this period, the price of Bitcoin fell more than 60% from its peak. Even if one were to argue that Bitcoin is now more widely accepted as an alternative to gold, Cochran demonstrates that gold’s performance during the pandemic crash was not particularly impressive either.

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Gold, often seen as a safe haven asset in times of economic uncertainty, only saw its value increase by 8.3% during the pandemic. Comparing Bitcoin’s downside volatility (-70%) to gold’s upside volatility (+8.3%) over the same period, Cochran suggests that it is unrealistic to expect Bitcoin hitting $1 million within 90 days based on Srinivasan’s reasoning.

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