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Despite its previous success, the stock-flow model has drawn many naysayers over the past year, given its inability to predict the price of bitcoin in 2022.
Its creator, however, remains convinced and outlined the possible scenarios at play for BTC for the next halving, which is supposed to take place in a year.
S2F places BTC at $60,000
The S2F model has been widely talked about over the past few years, with most bitcoin maxis supporting it, given its bullish price predictions, while many others have criticized it in times of inaccuracy. It takes stock into consideration as the size of existing reserves (or stocks) and the flow of the annual supply of bitcoins in the market.
The model worked well for the first few years after PlanB introduced it, achieving many of its goals. However, it failed to even reach its most recent predictions, including surpassing the six-figure price at the end of last year, despite PlanB’s claims.
The halving, the event that approximately halves the production of BTC every four years (210,000 blocks), is an essential element of the model since it reduces the flow (annual supply). With the next one supposed to be around a year from now, according to current estimates, PlanB has indicated where bitcoin will be in terms of USD price at that time.
He claimed that the asset will trade at around $60,000 (more than 2 times its current price) and will continue to rise after the fourth halving.
Bitcoin and Metcalfes Law
PlanB also cited the Metcalfes Act, which holds that the value or financial impact of a (telecommunications) network is proportional to the number of connected and operational users, to support its BTC price prediction. Although Metcalfes Law generally refers to some type of network, the Bitcoin blockchain also operates as one, and it has grown in terms of active users and BTC holders.
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