Bitcoin price can ‘easily’ reach $20,000 in the next 4 months Philip Swift

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Bitcoin (BTC) is over its bear market, but the coming months could see a return to $20,000.

That’s the outlook of Philip Swift, a veteran bitcoin market analyst who co-founded the Decentrader trading suite and the Look Into Bitcoin data resource.

In her latest interview with Cointelegraph, Swift takes a look at what the short- and long-term future holds for BTC price action.

After predicting the end of the bear market at the end of 2022, Swift sticks to its assessment of underlying price strength, while remaining cautious about the chances of a correction deeper than the 10% decline. of last week.

Bulls face many hurdles on the road to new all-time highs, he says, with government policy being particularly troubling when it comes to potential price suppression.

Nevertheless, there is every reason to believe that for now the bottom has been reached and a solid period of growth awaits Bitcoin in the second half of the year.

Cointelegraph (CT): In our last interview in October, you predicted that the Bitcoin bear market would be over in 3 months. Do you think it’s gone for good?

Philip Swift (PS): Yes.

It really felt like we were close to peak pain in October, and we got final surrender soon after in November. BTC then started rising in January, 3 months after our interview.

This chart shows how the current bear market has really been quite similar to previous cycles in terms of timing, showing that human nature never really changes:

That doesn’t mean we can’t have a decent correction in the next few months though. We could experience some volatility and cut after what was an exceptional Q1 2023 where BTC rebounded 80%. I wouldn’t be surprised if we needed to freshen up a bit.

CT: Since Bitcoin gained 80% in the first quarter, did the price performance of BTC in 2023 surprise you?

PS: It’s not uncommon for Bitcoin to make major moves like this after such a long period of depression. As the price rallied from the lows, we could see that the funding rates remained stable/negative, indicating that there was great disbelief among derivatives traders.

This helped the price of BTC continue to rise all the way to $30,000 with a succession of short cuts.

CT: A lot of market participants remain skeptical of this year’s rally and expect a return to $20,000 or worse. How much do you agree with them?

PS: This is entirely possible, as this would only represent a -25% downward movement from current prices. For a volatile asset like Bitcoin, this could quite easily happen at some point over the next 3-4 months. Beyond that, I think it’s getting more and more unlikely as I think the halving narrative will come into effect later in the year, which should increase buying pressure.

Related: Bitcoin Prices Steady Near $27,000 What May Trigger the Next Move?

CT: We’ve had various regulatory bombs from which Bitcoin has managed to rebound time and again over the past few months. Do you think the market can continue to get rid of these mini black swans?

PS: I do as long as these mini black swans are fairly specific and not industry wide. To expand on this, my biggest fear for Bitcoin is a coordinated attack by major governments to cut off the banking fiat and offramps that support the space.

I know Bitcoin is designed to survive in isolation, but I believe that if such a coordinated effort is executed well, it will suppress prices significantly for a long time.

What we are currently seeing in the United States in terms of regulation is not particularly encouraging. It’s definitely something to watch over the next two years.

CT: What do you think of the American banking crisis and its consequences? Are we ready for more shock events in the short to medium term?

PS: We will have to wait and see if recent events in the banking sector were just the tip of the iceberg. However, I believe events like this are ultimately a positive catalyst for Bitcoin, especially among young people, who will continue to question why it is better to have savings in a bank where there is custody risk, versus to a decentralized self-custodial asset like Bitcoin.

Ultimately, I think the banking industry issues related to customer deposits are long-term bullish for Bitcoin.

CT: All things being equal, how do you see BTC/USD performing this quarter and beyond? Is it too early to talk about a pre-halving buildup?

PS: I think we may need some sideways action from here for a few months after the stonking Q1 Bitcoin had. Towards the end of the year, at the end of the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth quarter, I expect the halving narrative to really kick off, which should have a positive impact on the price.

Also, this should give enough time for the market to heal after the FTX. We also would have had to bear a lot of the risk of selling Mt. Gox. Any remaining sales must be assessed and priced by the market at this stage.

CT: Filbfilb (CEO of Decentrader) recently published an analysis of how Bitcoin might perform in the next halving cycle and doubled over $180,000 as a primary target. Where are you on the next blowing cycles?

PS: It is certainly possible. I expect long-term holders to start unloading their bitcoins as the price breaks above $80,000.

This will start to bring new supply to the market. Eventually, there will be too much supply to absorb the demand. I expect it to be over $100,000.

Exactly where it is very difficult to call. In 2017, we saw a price increase from $10,000 to $20,000 in less than 2 weeks! A lot of people forget that. If we get another top like this, such volatility makes it extremely difficult or nearly impossible to call the exact top.

I think a realistic range would be $120,000 to $210,000.

CT: What BTC price metrics are currently capturing your attention?

PS: Bull market comparison: useful for understanding where we are from a time perspective.

1yr HODL Wave: Shows that long-term holders have been accumulating and will not sell off en masse until the price hits a new all-time high. Bitcoin HODL Wave 1 year chart. Source: DecentraderMVRV Z-Score: Shows market-wide “earnings” levels, the difference between market capitalization and realized capitalization. Currently, the market has just returned to profit as the Z-score (blue line) has moved above the green accumulation zone. Still a long way to go until we get closer to a market top. Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score Chart. Source: Decentralizer

CT: Is the NFT market dead?

PS: No, but he is currently in a state of major depression.

While quality collections are broadly stable in USD, almost all major collections are down against ETH over the past few months. influencers on Twitter are pivoting to talk about other topics like AI. That’s not to say that these influencers aren’t long-term bullish on NFTs, just that interest in NFT prices in the short to medium term has clearly evaporated. That said, we believe we will soon reach the final stages of the NFT bear market.

While there may be more general difficulties in the market, we expect to see more and more strategic investors looking for quality NFTs at bargain prices. This could relieve a small number of short-term collections.

Magazine: Crypto Regulation: Does SEC Chairman Gary Gensler Have the Final Word?

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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