Bitcoin is close to a key level. How jobs data could spur a new rally.

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Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies were little changed on Friday as the all-important monthly U.S. jobs report loomed. With digital assets at key technical levels and vulnerable to macro forces, there is potential for volatility ahead.

Bitcoin price has been hovering around flat for the past 24 hours at nearly $29,100, remaining below $30,000, which it topped in April for the first time since last June amid a rally that has taken it to around 70% this year. Bitcoin has since failed to consolidate above $30,000, considered technically and psychologically important as it represents the price level before the bulk of the bear market selloff.

The first cryptocurrency overcame a sharp drop on May 1 and is now testing downside resistance against local highs of recent months, said Alex Kuptsikevich, analyst at broker FxPro, referring to the near 30 zone. $000 that Bitcoin struggled to regain. Consolidation above this level would be a significant signal for buyers and could trigger a growth spurt.

The US jobs report for April is a key catalyst and should rock the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 as much as Bitcoin. As risk-sensitive assets, stocks and cryptos are vulnerable to macroeconomic forces that could shape the future of Federal Reserve monetary policy. Aggressive tightening of financial conditions by central banks this week, which raised interest rates for the 10th time in 14 months, was the driving force behind the decline in stocks and Bitcoin.

Markets are pricing a decent chance that the Fed’s quarter-point rate hike this week will be its last, but the central bank said it will continue to monitor data to guide its inflation-fighting campaign . Labor market tightness remained an inflationary force, placing more emphasis on the monthly US jobs report in recent months.

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Economists polled by FactSet expect the United States added 180,000 jobs last month, up from 236,000 in March. Along with the headline jobs figure, investors want to see other signs that labor market tensions are easing, such as wage growth.

A tumultuous week for global markets will culminate today, said Marios Hadjikyriacos, analyst at broker XM. With markets now pricing the odds of the Fed cutting rates in July nearly even, the stakes are high.

Beyond Bitcoin, Ether, the second-largest crypto, was steady at $1,900. Smaller cryptos or altcoins were slightly weaker, with Cardano and Polygon down 1%. Memecoins showed similar action, with Dogecoin and Shiba Inu each losing 1%.

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Write to Jack Denton at [email protected]

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