Crypto Correction Approaching Sweet Region for Higher Low, Return to Trend

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US rates remain in a choppy corrective range, even after the recent Fed meeting and CPI release this week. Considerable attention has been focused on employment, with the 4-week moving average of U.S. jobless claims this week exceeding the recent range, as this is seen as a key driver of stock performance going forward. ‘coming.

Macro vs. Technicals US rates remain in a choppy corrective range, even after the recent Fed meeting and CPI release this week. Considerable attention has been focused on employment, with the 4-week moving average of U.S. jobless claims this week exceeding the recent range, as this is seen as a key driver of stock performance going forward. ‘coming.

However, the Nasdaq continues to push higher, while the Russell 2000 continues to reflect underlying market weakness. For now, as the Nasdaq holds its own, we can see the crypto turning away from support levels. Still, the real test for the crypto will be whether it can fully decouple from the Nasdaq if it begins to slump.

So while the technical outlook is bullish, we still need to closely monitor the stocks and incoming data as well as the interaction between asset classes.

Ethereum vs Bitcoin No change as the cross has been on a sideways trajectory for the last week or so. As such, after holding and reacting higher from the Fibonacci support around 0.062, my studies look for a return to the upper end of the previous range. We have developed a higher low around 0.064 and should now see the spread working higher at 0.075-0.078 after this sideways consolidation phase. A break of pivot resistance around 0.067 and then trend resistance at 0.069 triggers the next leg up. This outlook is wrong on a breakout of 0.064 and then 0.062, such a move opening 0.057.

Bitcoin

This is a key week ahead now as the correction phase from the 31,000 high has extended into wave C. This again has the potential for a push towards the 25,500-25,000 weekly trend and the pivot support region. However, if my studies are correct, this is where we should see a higher low developing. We should then see a bounce and further range trades develop ahead of new highs, or a direct return to new highs in the coming weeks, targeting the next resistance in the 33,000 region.

A move back through short-term pivot resistance at 28,500 supports the low, while a move back to 30,000 confirms the decline as a 3-wave corrective process. A collapse via this support would be the first warning sign that is not the case and opens the risk of a move to 22,000-20,000.

Longer term, my studies suggest the bearish cycle from the 2021 highs reached last year around 15,500.

The first targets and resistance in the uptrend are in the 33000 region. But the main target is 36000 which is Fibonacci and the head and shoulders projection. I suspect we see this region holding the first test, but the very long term targets are 42,000-48,000.

A drop down to 19,500 would cancel out and signal that the entire move up to around 30,000 has just been a 3 wave corrective process and we will likely remain in a choppy sideways range between 15,000 and 30,000 for several months. .

EthereumAs with Bitcoin, we have about a key week ahead of us. After ending wave B at the 2006 Fibonacci resistance, we saw wave C extend lower last week. We are now moving into the sweet spot between 1720 and 1650 to look for higher depression development. If so, then we should move to a wider range ahead of new highs, or just to new highs, targeting 24,500. A rally in 1875 and then 2006 confirms this 3-wave corrective decline.

As with Bitcoin, a slump and close below 1650 would be the first warning that this outlook is wrong and risks an extension down to the 1370 March lows.

Longer term, the reversal from last year’s lows targets resistance around 2400/2450, but may extend to 3000-3300. A drop to 1400 negates that underlying bullish outlook, signaling that the gains have just been another 3 wave correction and we are now in a wide but lower range.

Robin is a global market veteran, with over 30 years of buy and sell side experience, as a strategist and trader. He now provides strategic trading and investment advice to hedge funds, family offices, high net worth individuals and dealing desks around the world. Photo Credit: depositphotos.com (The commentary in the above article does not constitute an offer, solicitation or recommendation to make or liquidate an investment or to effect any other transaction. to any investment or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.) Enter your email to read this exclusive Macro Hive

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