Does the success of Bitcoin’s BTC price depend on the upcoming presidential election?

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Good morning. Here is what happens:

Price: The post-debt ceiling rally in the crypto market is over, with bitcoin and ether down in East Asia. What is the next narrative for crypto?

Insights: The latest trader engagement reports show a rebound in open long positions among asset managers.

In search of the next pricing story

Yesterday, the post-debt ceiling rally came to an end.

Bitcoin starts the trading day in East Asia down 1.3% at $27,746 while Ether is down 1.1% at $1,893.

Over the past few weeks, the crypto has struggled with a narrative issue. Is the absence of a defining narrative a risky asset, or a hedge against risk? led to wanton price fluctuations and confused investors.

Some might say, for example, that bitcoin should have risen due to debt ceiling uncertainty, as a US default would have shaken the traditional financial system. But instead, bitcoin acted like a stock. Perhaps the cryptos narrative isn’t a narrative at all.

Ed Moya, senior market analyst at forex market maker OANDA, posits that the upcoming US election is the story to watch.

We were reminded that the key to Bitcoin’s success in the United States may hinge on the upcoming presidential election,” Moya wrote in a note on Friday. “Florida Governor Ron Desantis has announced his intention to run for president and appears ready to protect Bitcoin.

With central bank digital currencies being a new issue on the Florida political landscape, the national stage is the next logical step. Crypto has appeared in elections around the world, such as South Korea and Thailand, and President Joe Biden mentioned it when discussing the debt deal negotiations.

Maybe this will be the narrative to watch?

Funding Rates Remain Positive in Crypto Markets

The Commitment of Traders report shows that asset managers increased their open long positions in bitcoin after falling in the previous two weeks. The increase of 24 contracts follows a reduction of 162 contracts the previous week.

The increase ends what appeared to be more of an overall reduction in exposure than a comment on the price itself. Asset managers also reduced their short positions over the same period by a total of 194 contracts.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) releases COT data weekly, detailing open interest and activity from asset managers, leveraged funds, and intermediary bitcoin futures brokers.

The asset managers now account for 48.9% of open long positions on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and have a 97.25% long position in the asset as a group.

The hosts of “The Hash” weighed in on the biggest stories shaping the crypto industry today. The number of ether (ETH) on exchanges has hit a low not seen since July 2016 as staking saps available ether. Separately, the potential sign that good economic news equals bad news for the digital asset price narrative is starting to change. Additionally, attorney representing certain FTX investors, Adam Moskowitz, joined “The Hash” to discuss basketball legend Shaquille O’Neal in a class action lawsuit regarding FTX and his celebrity endorsements.

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