Crypto Bitcoin BTC Market On Hold As June Inflation Data Release Approaches

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Good morning. Here is what happens:

Price: what will take bitcoin past $30,000?

Insights: A freely convertible Chinese yuan is a requirement for a CNY stablecoin. It won’t happen anytime soon.

Bitcoin eyes a bull market in 2024, but is $120,000 realistic?

As Asia opens its trading day, Bitcoin continues to hold the $30,000 mark, while Ether is stable. Data from Coinglass shows that over the past 12 hours, slightly longer selloffs than short selloffs have occurred with longs of $7 million and shorts of $6.73 million being liquidated.

The market is on hold, waiting for signals of higher prices after a slowdown or pause in rate hikes in the second half of the year, which would be characterized by an influx of liquidity, Bybits Ether Chen, its senior financial engineer, told CoinDesk in a note.

Chen said the Bybits team expects a potential market price recovery in the fourth quarter, but a full bull market may not materialize until 2024. This recovery would depend on rate hikes halting, the halving of BTC and the resolution of regulatory storms.

Tim Frost, CEO of digital wealth platform Yield App, points to slowing inflation numbers but market confidence that the Federal Reserve will raise rates further as a sort of mixed message, and dismisses a recent Standard Chartered report that bitcoin will hit $120,000 by the end of next year.

For crypto assets, this all likely means continued range trading around current levels. Bitcoin appears to be holding pretty close to $30,000 at the moment, which is an almost 100% increase from January, when it started the year at $16,540, he said in a note. . There are few assets that perform so well in a “bear” market, and savvy seasoned traders will likely have done well on BTC this year.

Whether or not Standard Chartered’s price forecast is correct, Frost sees a bull market on the horizon for 2024.

The long-term consensus remains that the crypto will enter its next bull market in 2024 after a period of continued consolidation this year and, behind closed doors, a huge innovation is paving the way for the next wave of crypto adoption, concludes- he.

Here’s Why We Won’t See CNY Stablecoin

Circles CEO Jeremy Allaire says a stablecoin pegged to the Chinese yuan (CNY) is a better option than a central bank digital currency (CBDC).

But a yuan stablecoin is not going to happen, just like a Chinese CBDC is not going to challenge the dollar.

For what? Because the free convertibility of the yuan goes against a fundamental fundamental of Beijing’s monetary policy.

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) maintains tight control over the yuan’s exchange rate, keeping it in a narrow band and not allowing it to float freely in international markets. This allows China to maintain control over its export prices and its domestic economy. But it also means that the yuan cannot be used abroad, like the euro or the USD, and there are strict capital controls on how much you can take out of the country.

The more you want your currency to be used internationally, the more control you need to be willing to give up.

As IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath pointed out in a 2022 speech, these are not hallmarks of a global currency. After all, the yuan is only used in around 3.2% of global payments in January 2022.

“If a country aspires to be a global currency, then in that case you would need to have, you know, fully and freely mobile capital, full capital account liberalization, full exchange rate convertibility, that which is not the case now in China,” Gopinath reportedly said.

But you know who else has been on Washington’s radar as a currency manipulator? Taiwan.

Unlike China, Taiwan does not actively intervene to keep its currency, the New Taiwan Dollar (TWD), artificially low to boost exports. Instead, Taiwan has been known to intervene to prevent a rapid appreciation of its currency, which could hurt its export-driven economy.

David Mulford, then Under Secretary-designate in the Treasury Department’s Office of International Affairs, noted the large-scale intervention by the Central Bank of Taiwan in the foreign exchange market and the lack of significant exchange rate appreciation despite Taiwan’s large external surplus. .

For its part, Taipei denies being an active currency manipulator or having capital controls indicating openness to foreign investment in its stock market and free convertibility of foreign currencies on its shores.

But if there is one thing that unites Taipei and Beijing, it is that the central bankers of the two capitals do not want to relinquish control of their currencies to the market.

TRON Founder and Huobi Global Advisor Justin Sun joined “First Mover” to discuss the state of crypto regulation, outlook on Hong Kong and more. Bitcoin (BTC) is holding firm above $30,000. GSR Markets Co-Founder and President Rich Rosenblum presented his analysis of the crypto markets. And the European Commission’s metaverse strategy is expected to be published later today. Metaverse EU Editor Patrick Grady shared his expectations.

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