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Pablo Heman is known among his 600,000 TikTok subscribers for his bitcoin price predictions. He explains how he uses chain data, price charts and the global economic climate to make his forecasts. Heman also explains why he thinks bitcoin could drop as low as $ 23,500 over the next two weeks, which would be about a 30% drop from current levels. See more stories on the Insider business page.
The decentralized nature of Bitcoin means just about anyone with a phone and an internet connection can call themselves a crypto asset influencer.
For example, when bitcoin hit an all-time high just below $ 65,000 in mid-April, every crypto influencer had something to say about it.
One influencer in particular, who goes by the pseudonym Pablo Heman, has made waves among crypto enthusiasts at TikTok with his short videos accurately predicting bitcoin prices over time.
His popularity is reflected in the nearly 600,000 subscribers he has managed to accumulate since opening his account in January. His TikTok can be found under the username pabloheman.
Heman’s true identity remains largely unknown to the public, but he told Insider that he started his career as a trader at one of Australia’s largest investment banks and eventually left it. industry for a different life.
“A lot of people think of me as a technical analyst because I make very specific calls when I point to certain charts,” Heman told Insider. “Now that’s because TikTok only gives me 59 seconds. I can only show you a graph.”
Heman has now transferred his trading floor skills to the crypto space, and told Insider there is a lot more to bitcoin fundamentals than a chart.
But Heman recently received criticism after telling viewers he thought it was “very likely” for bitcoin to fall into the $ 20,000 region during the sale that began just after bitcoin hit its peak. April peak. While that hasn’t happened, Heman still believes bitcoin could drop to $ 23,500, or around 30% below current levels over the next few weeks, but only temporarily, as bitcoin enthusiasts scramble. to buy more at a reduced price.
Heman shared the three basic principles he says he uses to reach his predictions. He also shared his current analysis of where he is heading for bitcoin in the near term.
String data
If you only look at one graph, you’re missing out on most of the story, Heman says. He says that contrary to popular belief, bitcoin does not have the same fundamentals that are used for stocks, such as corporate earnings reports. For him, understanding the elements that move bitcoin means starting with so-called chain data.
Chain data encompasses all historical transaction data on the blockchain, including transactions per day, value transferred, mining hash rate, and miner income, among other numbers. It was cited as a fundamental new framework for bitcoin valuation by Ark Invest researchers earlier this year.
Heman says he’s keeping a close eye on this distributed public ledger, where transactions that occur on a blockchain can be viewed by anyone.
For him, one of the first indicators that could signal a massive sell-off is when he starts to see so-called cold wallets owned by whales start to go live. A cold wallet is a way to store bitcoin offline, usually in the form of a hardware device, while the term “whale” refers to an individual or entity that holds a large amount of bitcoin.
“During the recent sell-off when bitcoin went from $ 50,000 to $ 30,000 what happened was basically some of the big accounts that were selling in the past we saw them move large amounts. like 6,000 bitcoins at a time, multiple moves like this, not just from a wallet. [It went] from their cold storage portfolio to the exchange wallet, ”Heman said.
He continued, “This means that within 14 days a serious sale of the whales will begin.”
While there is a lot of speculation about who these whales are, Heman believes the majority of whales come from China, due to the country’s restrictions on currency movements. Chinese laws require people to obtain a permit if they wish to trade more than $ 50,000 a year in yuan in any foreign currency, and the country recently cracked down on cryptocurrencies within its borders.
When Heman begins to see a movement on the blockchain, he also keeps an eye on China’s foreign policy and crypto regulations to try to understand if there is a new announcement or decision that could be behind the movement. .
Technical analysis
Beyond his fundamental approach, Heman estimates that technical analysis accounts for 30 to 40% of his forecasting equations. But when it comes to looking at the chart, it focuses more on volume than price action.
Heman says if trade volume remains low during a price rebound, it could lead to a so-called dead cat rebound, which refers to a short-lived rally that quickly gives way to more sales.
He adds that just because the price of bitcoin has hovered in the mid-$ 30,000 for the past two weeks doesn’t mean the asset has come out of the woods.
“Right now bitcoin is trying to rally and a lot of people think I’m wrong and my prediction of $ 20,000 or less than $ 30,000 doesn’t come true. First of all, I never bet I said it’s going to happen in the next few weeks and it’s only been two weeks, “Heman said.
Unless the whales start buying and the volume spikes, he still thinks it’s “very likely” that the bitcoin bottom is somewhere in the middle of $ 20,000. Heman notes that this will be an extension of a so-called head-and-shoulders pattern, which forms when an asset peaks, sells strongly, and then retraces the initial gain. Many market technicians, including Heman, see these formations as bearish signals.
“On the weekly bitcoin chart, if we take a step back and look at the bigger picture, it just broke a 3-month head-and-shoulder pattern in what was the biggest sell-off in the history of the bitcoin. bitcoin, ”he said. “If we’re in a V-shaped bounce, then the last two weekly bars have been pretty dark, the volume hasn’t been impressive either.”
Heman added, “Seeing this, who would think we go straight back to $ 60,000 without testing $ 30,000 and most likely $ 20 first?”
He concluded that if bitcoin crosses the $ 30,000 support threshold again, it could drop to $ 23,500, or about 30% below the level where the coin traded on Tuesday.
The global economic environment
The last indicator Heman says he’s keeping an eye on is the global economic climate. And for now, it looks like bitcoin is a safe haven for many countries facing hyperinflation, including places like Turkey, which has an inflation rate above 16%, according to a Reuters report.
“In my opinion, basically anything that cannot be printed by a government that has any value will be in a raging bull market,” Heman said.
In the past, most people who lived in countries facing currency devaluation looked to the US dollar, but with all the recent printing it has become a less attractive option, he adds.
“You would think that at least 5% of the wealth of these billionaires will be in bitcoin because it can just cross borders with you, right? So what I’m saying is that I don’t I don’t need to look at any graph, “Heman told Insider.
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