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Tony Greer, a former Goldman commodities trader, heads independent research firm TG Macro. Greer describes what he considered to be the 5 sentimental highs of bitcoin when he first broke above $ 60,000. He also explains how far the cryptocurrency has to drop for him to be interested in buying. See more stories on the Insider business page.
Over the past year, speculators have flocked to the crypto market where wealth is quickly created and lost.
Many traders who are fed up with competing with the algorithms of high frequency trading companies in traditional markets are drawn to the many opportunities to exploit the inefficiencies of the crypto space. But Tony Greer was content to remain a spectator.
However, the ex-trader of Goldman Sachs, who was at the forefront of the rise and collapse of the dot-com bubble, couldn’t help but point out the “five sentimental highs” he saw. in bitcoin (BTC) when the cryptocurrency first exceeded $ 60,000.
But when Greer shared his thoughts on Twitter, he said he was “publicly skinned by the laser eye community” and received the “have fun staying poor” treatment.
“I literally had to go through and block around 100 of them just because I’m tired of the abuse,” Greer, founder of independent research firm TG Macro, said in an interview. “My whole point in the bitcoin market is that I have never seen a market where players are angry with non-players for not being there.”
Trading momentum is uncharted territory for a veteran Wall Street commodities trader like Greer.
“When you make money with oil and gold, you want it to be Wall Street’s best kept secret. You don’t want someone tampering with your slot machine once you have it. feel like they’ve discovered this commodity, “he said. “The bitcoin guys are the opposite. They are not traders, they are guys who hold on forever, they think it’s a magic carpet ride to wealth, and they threw all the trading momentum. by the window.”
The 5 sentimental tops in bitcoin
As bitcoin traded just above $ 32,000 on Monday after correcting its all-time high of $ 64,000 in April, Greer’s call for the five “sentimental highs” in bitcoin was somewhat validated.
He first saw the signs when Elon Musk bought $ 1.5 billion worth of bitcoin in February as a cash reserve asset for Tesla, which would also accept bitcoin as a form of payment. Musk then backtracked on the payout decision.
Then came the earth-shattering episode where digital artist Beeple sold a symbolic, non-fungible work of art for over $ 69 million through Christie’s in March. He saw the foam intensify as the FTX crypto exchange secured the naming rights for the stadium that houses the NBA Miami Heat franchise.
After bitcoin first crossed $ 60,000, Greer noticed that all HODLers were putting “laser eyes” on their avatars. But it all seemed to have peaked with the public debut of Coinbase (COIN), which jumped to over $ 429 on the first day of trading and saw bitcoin hit a record high above $ 64,000 on the same day.
“When I added up all of those sentimental headlines and looked at the chart,” Greer recalls, “I said I hate to tell you, but bitcoin came to naught in 2021. La next thing you know is that it goes down $ 60,000 to $ 30,000. “
Weakness ahead and chance to buy the drop
Greer believes bitcoin could collapse further and find a bottom somewhere between $ 20,000 and $ 30,000 eventually.
“This is an area where, relative to where it was located, I would be interested in potentially buying it,” he said. “But I want to see some weakness, I want to see a lot of the feeling come out of it.”
Greer does not share the view that bitcoin is digital gold, he respects the intellectual capital that has accumulated in the asset. Specifically, he appreciates the weighted approach that hedge fund billionaire Paul Tudor Jones and Real Vision founder Raoul Pal have taken to analyzing the space.
“People like that are opening my eyes to what the value of bitcoin might be and keeping it on my radar screen for trading because the thing is liquid and tradable like hell,” he said. “So if you feel like it’s going to set direction for a reason, then let’s be in it.”
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