[ad_1]
Good night!
I just wanted to post a quick post as it looks like BTCUSD and crypto in general are in a very interesting place. Right now we’re in the middle of a massive volume node, between 41k and 31k. From this very minute, we are bouncing off a huge support area, which has held several times since the initial breakout above 20,000 last December. The most likely trade from this point is a mid reversion buy, back to the middle of the volume node / channel. From there, however, it’s everyone’s guess.
We suspect a breakout below 20k.
This area is absolutely crucial to the history of Bitcoin, and it’s important to explain why.
If you really break it down, Bitcoin has no underlying value. People can dispute this claim until they are blue, but from a non-delusional standpoint, BTC has no value. There is no cash flow to fall back on, and the market decides its value through pure order flow. The same could be said of any asset, but order flow in stocks, for example, is heavily influenced by fundamental analysis. The supply and demand of raw materials is controlled by the END USE CASE. The end use case with BTC is supposed to be in its own shadow financial system. In developed economies, this end-use case is questionable at best. Why am I paying gas fees when I can Venmo again or cash out my friend for free? In our opinion, the only argument here that holds water is the digital gold / inflation argument. And in general, the same people who REALLY REALLY want to “own” their money (good luck calling customer service when you lose your key) are the same people who buy canned corn and shotgun cartridges for the sake of it. apocalypse, and are not a big enough subset of the population to support a huge massive buy order flow. If GLD is good enough for the Rothschilds, it is good enough for you.
Because of this, the value might evaporate to zero and you would be left with nothing. For this reason, at Discordia we consider BTC to be a “dynamic asset”. It’s the Wild West out there, with the sheer discovery of trade prices. This means that understanding the techniques and the storyline is 90% of the battle for successful trading.
What moreover we did.
Initial purchase:
Initial sale:
Additional sale:
As it stands, there are two cases.
Taurus:
1.) Buy downside support in a unique asset class opportunity (“Have fun staying poor”). 2.) The flow of negative news about miners in China is likely to hurt the asset more than it is (our reading), which means people are reluctant to sell, which means taking overall underlying decision digests this news better than expected.
Bear:
1.) The momentum is emphatically negative, and we’re still at the back of this megatrend 2.) The escape attempt a week ago was pissed off 3.) Who’s buying here that’s new to the story? a.) low conviction businesses that are really late to the party b.) BTC perma bulls that were waiting for a plunge to yolo their annual bonus on
In other words, most people who “feel strong enough” to buy this dip ALREADY KNOW THE ASSET CLASS. Who, really, is stumbling across crypto now for the first time? These are the types of newbies in the market who make emotional trading decisions and make all of the typical beginner mistakes – too much leverage, yada yada. I never want to be on the same side as these people.
4.) Markets tend to screw everyone up in the end. Guess where each trader’s stop is?
hint: $ 29,999.99
On a breakout of 30,000, we expect to see a pure erasure down to 20,000, the original breakout point, where we have our starting bids for a speculative position that we are looking to trade.
Hope this helped clarify the situation for you. Well done and stay safe there!
Let us know your questions / comments in the comments.
[ad_2]
picture credit